Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

Chou, Sin Chan; Marengo, José A.; Lyra, André; Sueiro, Gustavo; Pesquero, José; Alves, Lincoln M.; Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard; Chagas, Diego; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1002-8

Cited by 174 publications

(170 citation statements)

References 58 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

141

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The upgraded code described here is in use at a number of places, in some of them operationally, and in yet others in regional climate projects and for multidecadal runs (Chou et al 2011), with a very large number of runs completed. The robustness of the code seems thus to have been confirmed to within a high level of confidence.…”

Section: A Zonda Windstorm Casementioning

confidence: 99%

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Mesinger

Chou

Gomes

et al. 2012

Meteorol Atmos Phys

Self Cite

148

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP's Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/ mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP's latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finitevolume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme's unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finitevolume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.

show abstract

Section: A Zonda Windstorm Casementioning

confidence: 99%

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Mesinger

Chou

Gomes

et al. 2012

Meteorol Atmos Phys

Self Cite

148

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Scenarios under climate change are derived from Chou et al (2012), who used the output data of the GCM HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) as the boundary condition in simulations of the regional climate model ETA-CPTEC (ETA version of the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies). Using ETA-CPTEC and HadCM3 models, Chou et al (2012) simulated rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and other climatological variables for the periods 1960-1990, 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using ETA-CPTEC and HadCM3 models, Chou et al (2012) simulated rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and other climatological variables for the periods 1960-1990, 2010-2040, 2040-2070, and 2070-2100. The CO2 concentration in the base condition is 330 ppm, whereas the future projections use the IPCC SRES A1B scenario.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 26.0 % translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0 %. We used simulations from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al, 2012). We considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil

Neto

Scott

Lima

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change, especially in the arid and semiarid tropics. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the Capibaribe River basin (CRB). The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-to-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now larger and more spatially concentrated, which increases water-scarcity effects. Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES (Special Report: Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 26.0 % translated to streamflow reduction of 60.0 %. We used simulations from four members of the HadCM3 (UK Met Office Hadley Centre) perturbed physics ensemble, in which a single model structure is used and perturbations are introduced to the physical parameterization schemes in the model (Chou et al., 2012). We considered that the change of the water availability in the basin in the future scenarios must drive the water management and the development of adaptation strategies that will manage the water demand. Several adaptive responses are considered, including water-loss reductions, wastewater collection and reuse, and rainwater collection cisterns, which together have potential to reduce future water demand by 23.0 %. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The simulations showed that the measures proposed and the water from interbasin transfer project of the São Francisco River had a positive impact over the water supply in the basin, mainly for human use. Industry and irrigation will suffer impact unless other measures are implemented for demand control.

show abstract

“…This model also uses the NOAH scheme (Ek et al, 2003) to parameterize the landsurface transfer processes . Pesquero (2009), Chou et al (2012) and used model Eta CPTEC. In the first two studies, the model was used to reproduce the present climate in South America and to certify the quality of the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic approach to analyzing the uncertainties and possible changes in the availability of water in the future based on scenarios of climate change

Oliveira

Pedrollo

Castro

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The objective of this study was to analyze the changes and uncertainties related to water availability in the future (for the purposes of this study, the period between 2011 and 2040 was adopted), using a stochastic approach, taking as reference a climate projection from climate model Eta CPTEC/HadCM3. The study was applied to the Ijuí River basin in the south of Brazil. The set of methods adopted involved, among others, correcting the climatic variables projected for the future, hydrological simulation using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to define a number of monthly flows and stochastic modeling to generate 1000 hydrological series with equal probability of occurrence. A multiplicative type stochastic model was developed in which monthly flow is the result of the product of four components: (i) long-term trend component; (ii) cyclic or seasonal component; (iii) time-dependency component; and (iv) random component. In general, the results showed a trend to increased flows. The mean flow for a long period, for instance, presented an alteration from 141.6 m 3 s −1

show abstract

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

Cited by 174 publications

References 58 publications

An upgraded version of the Eta model

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River basin – Brazil

Stochastic approach to analyzing the uncertainties and possible changes in the availability of water in the future based on scenarios of climate change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About