Drivers of strategic contestation: The case of South America

Abstract

This article analyzes what the drivers of contestation of secondary powers vis-à-vis the regional power are, differentiating therein between structural, historical, behavioural and domestic such drivers. We argue that in regions characterized by relative stability where major interstate violent conflicts are unlikely, as is the case in South America, secondary powers rely mainly on soft-balancing mechanisms vis-à-vis the regional power. Whereas Brazil's foreign policy behaviour is key to South American secondary powers being induced to contest the country's powerhood, the choices that the foreign policy elites of those secondary powers make regarding what the specific expression of soft balancing is to be are influenced by certain domestic groups. Empirical examples are given of how Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela as secondary powers unfold these domestic drivers, which shape their different ways of soft balancing Brazil. The article thus explains why some secondary powers rely more on institutional binding, others on economic statecraft, or buffering, while others contest by offering and building alternative leadership proposals.

A identidade internacional do Brasil: uma síntese da literatura

“…Alguns autores defendem que outros Estados sul-americanos têm Rafael Mesquita buscado contrabalancear o Brasil (FLEMES;WEHNER, 2015;BURGES, 2015), e que o Itamaraty vê a região de modo instrumental, buscando atender objetivos domésticos (SPEKTOR, 2010;VIGEVANI;CEPALUNI, 2011;LAZAROU;THEODORO, 2015). Outros creem que não cabe falar de contrabalanceamento na pacífica América do Sul (MERKE, 2015); defendem que o país assegurou uma posição de "líder do desenvolvimento" sul-americano (PINHEIRO; GAIO, 2014); ou concedem que o Brasil, conquanto não seja um líder "institucional", vem exercendo lideranças "instrumental" e "situacional" (MOURÓN Dimensão normativa: pacifismo, direito internacional e multilateralismo Cervo (2008) identifica traços como a solução pacífica de controvérsias, o juridicismo, o multilateralismo normativo, ação externa cooperativa e não confrontacionista, e a cordialidade no trato com os vizinhos como sendo "acumulados históricos da diplomacia brasileira" que vêm pautando sua conduta no plano externo.…”

The Brazilian Rise and the Elusive South American Balance

“…This allows us to distinguish, unlike previous studies (cf. Flemes and Wehner 2015), between states that really do soft-balance and those that, despite some "contestational" tactics, do not actually apply a long-term soft-balancing strategy. 9 Similarly, many studies have confused bandwagoning with tactic convergence.…”

“…Most studies on Brazilian foreign policy address the country's relations with other emerging powers or with great powers. However, it is evident that the rise of the South American colossus, while generating new parities at the systemic level, has produced subsystemic disparities that have affected its relations with other states in the region (Malamud 2011;Lima 2013;Flemes and Wehner 2015). There has been increasing awareness of and concern about the effects this change has had -and probably will have -in the Brazilian backyard.…”

“…Nonetheless, this has not consistently occurred. South American secondary powers may have contested Brazilian leadership at times, with varied intensity (Flemes and Wehner 2015), 5 but this behavior has not been consistent across cases and years.…”

“…Pape 2005;Paul 2005). Daniel Flemes and Leslie Wehner (2015) apply this concept to South America and find some evidence of strategic contestation in the region. However, secondary regional powers in South America have behaved very differently from each other, with some changing their strategy several times since the inception of regional unipolarity in 1985.…”