Drought Frequency, Severity, and Duration Monitoring Based on Climate Change in Southern and Southeastern Ethiopia

Abara, Magarsa; Komariah,; Budiastuti, Sri

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/477/1/012011

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Therefore, the SPEI can be reliable in quantifying drought. This is corroborated by Abara and Budiastuti [78], whose study indicated that the SPEI produces more reliable results than the SPI.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI

Makuya,

Tesfuhuney,

Moeletsi

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Maize (Zea mays L.) is an essential crop in South Africa serving as a staple food; however, agricultural drought threatens its production, resulting in lower yields. This study aimed to assess the impact of agricultural drought on maize yield in the major areas (Bethlehem, Bloemfontein, and Bothaville) that produce maize in the Free State Province from 1990 to 2020. The study used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine drought occurrences and severity during the maize growing season (October–March). The Standardized Yield Residuals Series (SYRS), Crop Drought Resilient Factor (CDRF), Spearman’s Rank Correlation (rs), and yield loss rate were employed to emphasize agricultural drought impact on maize yield. The results based on the SPI and SPEI show that drought frequently occurred in Bethlehem, followed by Bloemfontein and Bothaville. Drought severity indicated that moderate droughts were prevalent in Bethlehem, while severe droughts were in all areas (Bethlehem, Bloemfontein, and Bothaville) and extreme droughts in Bloemfontein. The agricultural drought’s impact on maize varied across growth seasons and areas. Notably, the lowest SYRS value of −2.38 (1991/92) was observed in Bethlehem. An extremely strong significant correlation (rsSPEI-6 vs SYRS = 0.83, p = 1.07 × 10−8) was observed between the SPEI and SYRS in Bloemfontein during the October–November–December–January–February–March (ONDJFM) season. The CDRF indicated that maize yield was severely non-resilient (CDRF < 0.8) to drought in Bethlehem (CDRF = 0.27) and Bloemfontein (CDRF = 0.33) and resilient (CDRF = 1.16) in Bothaville. The highest maize yield loss of −88.62% was observed in Bethlehem due to extreme agricultural drought. The results suggest that, historically, agricultural drought was a threat to maize production in the studied areas, particularly in Bethlehem and Bloemfontein. This underscores the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices, such as drought-resistant varieties in these areas, to mitigate the impacts of climate change, especially drought, and ensure food security. This is a step toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI

Makuya,

Tesfuhuney,

Moeletsi

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…The calculation of the SPEI is based on the original procedure used to calculate the SPI but includes the influence of the AED to estimate the severity of drought while maintaining the multiscale characteristics of the SPI (Beguería et al, 2014). The SPEI is computed using the monthly climatic water balance (precipitation minus AED) calculated at various timescales (i.e., accumulation periods) (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010;Lweendo et al, 2017;Abara et al, 2020). These accumulation periods can be related to different drought types, such as 1-month SPEI for meteorological drought, 1-6 months SPEI for agricultural drought, and 6-24 months SPEI for hydrological drought (WMO, 2012).…”

Section: Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Moisture Sources of Ethiopian River Basins and Their Role During Drought Conditions

et al. 2022

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In this study, we identified and investigated the annual climatological moisture sources for the Ethiopian river basins during 1980–2018. First, according to cluster analysis, the 12 river basins of this country were grouped into four regions: northeast (NE), southeast (SE), southwest (SW), and west (W), which were characterised by similar annual precipitation features. Global outputs from the Lagrangian FLEXPART model were used to investigate the air mass humidity gain before reaching each region. This revealed five main oceanic moisture sources located in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and the Arabian Sea, in addition to three main terrestrial moisture sources located in the African continent, Arabian Peninsula, and the regions themselves. Once the main climatological sources of moisture for each region were identified, a forward-in-time analysis of air masses over each source was performed to calculate the moisture contribution to precipitation (E – P) < 0 over the defined regions. The most important source at the annual scale for the NE, SW, and W regions is the African continent, while for the SE, it is the Indian Ocean. Indeed, terrestrial moisture sources are the major contributors (>50%) to the precipitation over the NE, SW, and W, whereas oceanic sources are the major contributors to the SE. Another analysis identified the years affected by drought conditions in the regions. The role of the sources was evaluated for those years affected by severe and extreme drought, revealing the heterogeneous and also direct influences on the regions. Finally, according to the normalised difference vegetation index, the impacts of annual severe and extreme droughts were more prominent in areas of the NE and SE, but also in the SW during 1984.

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“…It is tough to identify the leading cause of a drought. It is commonly known that it occurs in the case of the non-existence of, or less than average precipitation, and human activities such as land use, mining, deforestation, and poor management of water re-sources can easily aggravate both the frequency and severity of drought [25,26]. Many studies have been carried out to monitor and quantify drought by applying various drought indices [27][28][29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of Drought Indices in the Assessment of Different Types of Droughts, Managing and Mitigating Their Effects

Ndayiragije

2022

Climate

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Droughts are the most destructive catastrophes in the world. The persistence of drought is considered to cause many challenges for both humans and animals and ruins the ecosystem. These challenges have encouraged scientists to search for innovative methods and models that are effective for assessing and predicting drought events. The use of drought indices has been extensively employed in many regions across the globe and their effectiveness demonstrated. This review illustrates the effectiveness of drought indices in the assessment of droughts, with a focus on drought management and mitigation measures. Additionally, several ways of managing drought risk and proactive strategies that need to be implemented to mitigate droughts have been illustrated. In conclusion, this article suggests that drought mitigation should be done more naturally, in ways that strongly protect the environment rather than involve engineering projects which might cause the degradation of rivers and land, and damage the ecosystem.

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Drought Frequency, Severity, and Duration Monitoring Based on Climate Change in Southern and Southeastern Ethiopia

Cited by 6 publications

References 15 publications

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI

Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI

Precipitation Moisture Sources of Ethiopian River Basins and Their Role During Drought Conditions

Effectiveness of Drought Indices in the Assessment of Different Types of Droughts, Managing and Mitigating Their Effects

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