Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability

Abstract

The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Drought on Surface Water Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Remote Sensing: A Review

“…Moreover, droughts and climate variability have severe consequences on the environment, economy, and human wellbeing [38], and the impacts are connected through couplings in land-atmosphere processes [32]. Groundwater resources become stressed when the region experiences an extended period of decreased rates in precipitation and high temperatures, which, in turn, affect groundwater recharge [8].…”

“…The occurrence of droughts in developed countries, with adequate coping mechanisms, leads to economic losses that can be alleviated through contingency funds or insurance schemes. However, in poor countries, like those in Africa and South America, drought can lead to food shortages and famine [38].…”

“…Droughts have been recurring in sub-Saharan Africa in the past 30 years [39]. During the 1991/1992 drought, agricultural production in Zimbabwe was reduced by 45% and the gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 11% [1,41], leading to severe food insecurity and famine, due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture [38]. The Western Cape of South Africa experienced a severe drought from 2015-2018 [1,17,42], and dam levels dropped to approximately 20%, affecting ±3.7 million people [24].…”

“…Frischen et al [38] VCI used to assess vegetation health and drought conditions in Zimbabwe, from 1989 to 2019 and found it detects drought dynamics…”

Potato virus Y and Potato leafroll virus management under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

“…7 This variability is exacerbated by erratic severe drought episodes. 8,9 Regional adaptations to maintain at least current yields in potato production in the increased area planted 10 are therefore crucial as most potatoes are grown under dry-land conditions during specific rainy seasons 11 .…”