Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

Abstract

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

Examination of Abiotic Drivers and Their Influence on Spartina alterniflora Biomass over a Twenty-Eight Year Period Using Landsat 5 TM Satellite Imagery of the Central Georgia Coast

“…These important ecosystems are at risk from current and anticipated stressors, including sea level rise, higher average and peak temperatures, altered freshwater discharges and precipitation patterns, and more frequent droughts [4][5][6][7][8]. To date, climate induced changes have been associated with shifting vegetation phenologies, variations in biomass and/or net annual primary production (NAPP), and shifting species composition within marsh ecosystems [9][10][11][12][13].…”

Adjusting Lidar-Derived Digital Terrain Models in Coastal Marshes Based on Estimated Aboveground Biomass Density

“…In terms of coastal modeling, this can prevent flooding of the marsh surface in a simulation under both normal tide and storm surge conditions. This has ramifications in engineering [23], ecological [24], and integrated models assessing major processes such as sea level rise and climate change [25][26][27].…”

Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Risk

“…Sea-level rise not only raises the mean sea level upon which surge is generated and propagates, but also facilitates long-term changes to the coastal landscape, potentially resulting in changes in underlying tidal dynamics (e.g., [22]) and enabling larger surges to propagate farther inland (e.g., [5,35]). For example, barrier island degradation induced by sealevel rise reduces the ability of these natural features to prevent ocean surge and waves from entering back-barrier areas [31].…”