Economic appraisal of road projects in countries with developing and transition economies

Kerali, H R

doi:10.1080/0144164032000068920

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This is consistent with the projections of Sala (2000), but in contrast to studies indicating that impacts of climate change on biodiversity may have exceeded land-use impacts halfway this century (Di Marco et al, 2019;Newbold, 2018). It is notoriously difficult to quantify the effects of future climate change in comparison to the impacts of other threats, reflecting model as well as data limitations (Newbold, 2018;Tingley, Estes, & Wilcove, 2013 (Dulac, 2018;Kerali, 2003), future increases in road network length are also expected. Recent projections for 2050 suggested increases in 14%-23% of the global road network, as a function of country-specific estimates of human population and gross domestic product according to the SSP framework (Meijer et al, 2018).…”

Section: Pressure Contributionssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…Similarly, impacts of future roads might be underestimated because we could not account for the future construction of new roads. Although improvements and increased use intensity of existing roads, as assumed in our projections, typically precede the construction of new roads (Dulac, ; Kerali, ), future increases in road network length are also expected. Recent projections for 2050 suggested increases in 14%–23% of the global road network, as a function of country‐specific estimates of human population and gross domestic product according to the SSP framework (Meijer et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Schipper

Hilbers

Meijer

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

167

120

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (−0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (−0.06 and −0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.

show abstract

Section: Pressure Contributionssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Schipper

Hilbers

Meijer

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

167

120

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The detailed economic evaluation requires life cycle analysis encompassing the prediction of many variables such as road deterioration, roadwork effects, Vehicle Operating Costs (VOCs), accident costs and time expenses (Kerali 2003). At the strategic level, this is hard to implement due to lack of data and high uncertainty about the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Cost-Benefit Analysis on Decision Making Concerning the Development of the Urban Transport System: Case of Kaunas City

Dumbliauskas

Barauskas

2018

Transport

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The formulation of scenarios for developing the urban transport infrastructure requires decisions mainly based on the intuition of experts in transport and highly influenced by public interest groups, business entities and political opinions. However, the reached decisions sometimes fail to be the most efficient. Therefore, to avoid errors and ensure the development of a sustainable transport system, the economical appraisal of infrastructure development scenarios is necessary. The economic evaluation of the developed scenarios can be carried out through macro-simulation and cost-benefit analysis. This paper deals with the Kaunas City Master Plan providing solutions to transport infrastructure development. According to the Master Plan, solutions can be classified considering 3 cathegories (priorities), although the detailed sequence of implementation is not given. With the help of macro-simulation, this study arranged Master Plan solutions into scenarios, checked all 20 scenarious and established an implementation order based on the theory of cost benefit analysis. The identified order substantially differs from the priorities set in the Master Plan.

show abstract

“…Whereas regional transportation studies have often focused on either determining and prioritizing regional transport needs (e.g., Sarkar and Ghosh, 2000) or the method of economic appraisals of completed projects (e.g. Kerali, 2003), our research focuses on the eVects that infrastructural upgrades have had on the interaction among places within a region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%