Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

Bandura, Oleksandr

doi:10.15407/econforecast2019.04.005

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

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“…Вагомий внесок у дослідження проблем циклічного характеру функціонування націо- нальної економіки зробили такі українські науковці як, О. Бандура, [1], З. Галушка [2], Р. Грінченко, Н. Демчук [3], А. Жаворонок [4], О. Криницька, Л.Крючко [4], О. Овсієнко, О. Пелех, І. Тараненко, О. Шурупій, Н. Юдіна [5] та інші. Оскільки циклічність сприймається як один із способів саморегулювання ринкової економіки, та характеризується спіралеподібним рухом, існує потреба її дослідження як форми прогресивного розвитку.…”

Section: аналіз останніх досліджень і публікаційunclassified

Сутнісні Риси Циклічного Розвитку Економічних Процесів

Рибчук,

Погуц

2023

Agrosvit

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У статті досліджується циклічний розвиток економічних процесів, яка продовжує залишатися основною закономірністю ринкової економіки і котра характеризується коливальними процесами ділової активності, що передбачає повторюваність та зміну фаз. Показано, що циклічний характер розвитку пов'язаний із наростанням, загостренням та руйнуванням внутрішніх суперечностей соціально-економічних систем, і як форма руху поєднує та реалізує стихійні та організовані функції. Виявлено, що в основі циклічності лежить послідовне здійснення одного або кількох циклів, що забезпечують функціонування та розвиток будь-якого об'єкта навколишнього світу, послідовну зміну його стану. Охарактеризовано взаємодію механізмів економічного циклу та ринкової економіки, що проявляється у відповідності між продуктивними силами та виробничими відносинами та їхньому впливі на співвідношення між попитом та пропозицією на ринку. Підтверджено необхідність прогнозування циклічних процесів та ефективного втручатися у їхнє протікання з метою підвищення ефективності функціонування соціально-економічних систем в умовах глобальної нестабільності та непередбачуваності. The article examines the cyclic nature of economic processes, which continues to be the main regularity of the market economy, which is characterized by fluctuating processes of business activity, unevenness and changes in evolutionary and revolutionary forms of economic progress, alternating phases of extensive or intensive economic growth. It is shown that the cyclicality of development is connected with the growth, exacerbation and destruction of internal contradictions of socio-economic systems, and how the form of movement combines and implements spontaneous and organized functions. It is noted that cyclicality is perceived as one of the ways and forms of self-regulation of the market economy, changes in its industry structure, moving along a spiral with a progressive perspective. It has been found that cyclicality is based on the sequential implementation of one or more cycles that ensure the functioning and development of any object in the surrounding world, a consistent change in its state, that is, it is a set of interdependent phenomena, processes that form a complete circle of development for a certain period of time It was found that the cycle is determined by: the completion of the economic process with the planned result; periodicity (repeatability) of quality jumps; closing the orderliness of the development phase. It is proven that the economic cycle is understood as the process of fluctuations in business activity due to periodic changes in macroeconomic indicators caused by exogenous and endogenous factors of

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Section: аналіз останніх досліджень і публікаційunclassified

Сутнісні Риси Циклічного Розвитку Економічних Процесів

Рибчук,

Погуц

2023

Agrosvit

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Prioritizing the survival determinants of quantity surveying firms in economic contraction

Moyanga,

Ojo,

Awodele

et al. 2023

ECAM

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PurposeMicro, small and medium-sized enterprises are the live wire of construction industry in developing countries. These classes of establishments are most affected by economic contraction and turmoil, thus affecting their performance and survivability. Hence, the purpose of this study is to investigate and prioritize the survival determinants of construction consulting organization during economic contraction in Nigeria using quantity surveying firms as a focal point.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopted the descriptive-survey design and quantitative data were collected through questionnaire purposely administered to quantity surveying firms in the Southwestern part of Nigeria. The data obtained from 99 quantity surveying firms on survival determinants were analysed using various statistical analysis such as mean score, standard deviation, Mann–Whitney U test, Kruskal–Wallis H test, and so on. Principal component analysis was used to identify the principal components of survival determinants, while the factors were prioritized using fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE).FindingsThe result of the analysis reveals eight factors that significantly determines the survival of firms during the period of economic contraction. Furthermore, the eight grouped factors were prioritized accordingly namely firm's innovation and diversification, ownership structure and networking, education level and management skills, and so on.Practical implicationsThis study investigated the survival determinants of quantity surveying firms and prioritized it with the opinions of principal partners in quantity surveying establishments. As against obtaining large survey responses from all quantity surveyors in the study area that may not have practical experience of managing firms, the limited responses received provide valid basis to broaden the horizon of professionals and other stakeholders on the key determinants for firms to survive economic turmoil.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing information on prioritized factors that must be considered in an appropriate order by quantity surveying firms to survive economic contraction.

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Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

Bandura¹

2019

Economy and forecasting

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It has been empirically proven that the business cycle dating model is inextricably linked with defining the boundaries of periods of stable and instable economic development. The author compares the methods of dating US economic cycles in accordance with the model of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the proposed in this article CMI model of cycles. Shown certain competitive advantages of dating СМІ cycles based on the CMI model against the NBER model, in which case there may be periods of ambiguity in dating. The article demonstrates that the use of the author's СМІ model for dating business cycles avoids the ambiguities that arise in the official dating of recessions based on the classic US NBER model of cycles. The dating of US business cycles with the CMI model revealed a cumulative effect of reducing unemployment, which explains that even with relatively small economic growth, which, however, lasts for a sufficiently long period of time, a significant overall reduction in the unemployment rate can be achieved. The equation to determine the cumulative market imperfections first index (∆Р) reflects the current balance between inflation, employment and economic growth for each moment of real (calendar) time and defines fundamental trends, which can be enhanced (weakened) by random events (external shocks, government actions, speculators, etc.). Therefore, despite the single driving force behind economic cycles, which is quantified by magnitude (∆Р), the configuration of each real cycle is unique. It is shown that the CMI model of economic cycle provides tools to achieve synergies from different types of regulation to maximize economic growth and employment at acceptable inflation by increasing the length of the stability period while reducing the magnitude of cumulative market failure.

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Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

Cited by 5 publications

References 11 publications

Сутнісні Риси Циклічного Розвитку Економічних Процесів

Сутнісні Риси Циклічного Розвитку Економічних Процесів

Prioritizing the survival determinants of quantity surveying firms in economic contraction

Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

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