Economic expectations and support for secession in Catalonia: between causality and rationalization

Abstract

Support for independence from Spain has sharply increased in recent years in Catalonia. According to all available evidence, public opinion has shifted from an overwhelmingly pro-autonomy position to an increasingly pro-independence stance. How can we explain such widespread support for secession in a democratic context? Traditionally, national identity has been regarded as the main explanatory factor, but recent accounts tend to underline the effect of political elite’s agency as well as instrumental calculations regarding the economic consequences of secession. However, the identification of this last causal effect is subject to a fundamental challenge: the possibility that economic expectations are mere rationalizations of prior preferences. In order to overcome this identification problem, we combine the analysis of observational survey data with an original survey-embedded experiment that provides a robust test of the causal nature of economic expectations. Our results show how identity, as well as partisanship, are the main drivers of support for secession, but also that economic considerations play an independent role. Results show that economic motivations are more relevant for citizens with ambivalent identity positions and for those that have no party identification, or are partisans of parties with less clear-cut stances on the issue.

The 2015 Catalan Election: The Independence Bid at the Polls

“…Model 1 shows that age did not play a relevant role in the decision to vote for the secessionist bloc (model 1). This is compatible with previous findings that age is not a key factor in voters' attitudes towards secession (Muñoz & Tormos 2014). Age, however, becomes a significant voting determinant within the secessionist bloc, as younger voters were more prone to vote for CUP than JxS (model 3).…”

Un passeig pel saló dels passos perduts: l’evolució del debat territorial a Catalunya.

“…Por el contrario, los que se oponen a la independencia tienen más probabilidad de usar argumentos identitarios, tanto los que tienen una preferencia fuerte como los que la tienen débil (Muñoz y Tormos, 2015).…”

Taking it Personally: the Effect of Ethnic Attachment on Preferences for Regionalism

“…Third, individual preferences for regionalism can be explained by individual ethnic attachment-there is much within-group variation. We show that prioritizing one's 3 A number of recent articles attempt to explain variation in preferences for regionalism in Spain, Belgium, Russia, the UK and the US (Boylan, 2015;Burg, 2015;Dodeigne et al, 2014;Hagendoorn et al, 2008;Muñoz and Tormos, 2015. 4 The one nation-wide study of preferences for devolution or regionalism comes from a study of Belgian MPs (Dodeigne et al, 2014).…”

“…First and foremost, the strength of one's ethnic identity should correlate positively with the demands for regionalism in a context where regions are created along ethnic lines. There is now a substantial body of literature suggesting a robust relationship between identity and support for regional devolution or secession in Belgium (Dodeigne et al, 2014), Russia (Hagendoorn et al, 2008) and Spain (Boylan, 2015;Muñoz and Tormos, 2015).…”