Support for independence from Spain has sharply increased in recent years in Catalonia. According to all available evidence, public opinion has shifted from an overwhelmingly pro-autonomy position to an increasingly pro-independence stance. How can we explain such widespread support for secession in a democratic context? Traditionally, national identity has been regarded as the main explanatory factor, but recent accounts tend to underline the effect of political elite’s agency as well as instrumental calculations regarding the economic consequences of secession. However, the identification of this last causal effect is subject to a fundamental challenge: the possibility that economic expectations are mere rationalizations of prior preferences. In order to overcome this identification problem, we combine the analysis of observational survey data with an original survey-embedded experiment that provides a robust test of the causal nature of economic expectations. Our results show how identity, as well as partisanship, are the main drivers of support for secession, but also that economic considerations play an independent role. Results show that economic motivations are more relevant for citizens with ambivalent identity positions and for those that have no party identification, or are partisans of parties with less clear-cut stances on the issue.

This article examines the relationship of stable contextual differences and contextual change with the endorsement of Schwartz’s (1992) two basic value dimensions—Openness-to-Change versus Conservation and Self-Enhancement versus Self-Transcendence. Using six waves of the European Social Survey, an extension of multilevel analysis is used which combines both a cross-national comparative and a dynamic analysis of values. The hierarchical data structure and the covariates for value endorsement are defined at three distinct levels: a first level for individuals (with sociodemographic variables, such as age and gender), a second level for country-waves (with time-varying covariates), and a third level for country (with time-invariant covariates). The main aim is to determine if changes in contextual covariates over time are related to value differences between countries over and above contextual time-invariant covariates. High national wealth and low income inequality predicted high Self-Transcendence values and low Conservation values. Low national unemployment rates were associated with less conservatism. When entered simultaneously into the model, only time-invariant differences in gross domestic product (GDP) remained to be a significant predictor of Schwartz’s two basic value dimensions. Finally, we found that an increase in income inequality over time has a certain incremental effect on the endorsement of Conservation over Openness-to-Change values. There were no associations for changes in national wealth and unemployment rates, suggesting that for value endorsement, time-varying contextual effects are less important overall than time-invariant contextual effects.

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