Economic impact of avoidable cancer deaths caused by diagnostic delay during the COVID-19 pandemic: A national population-based modelling study in England, UK

Abstract

Introduction: Delays in cancer diagnosis arose from the commencement of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) introduced in the UK in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our earlier work predicted this will lead to approximately 3620 avoidable deaths for four major tumour types (breast, bowel, lung, and oesophageal cancer) in the next 5 years. Here, using national population-based modelling, we estimate the health and economic losses resulting from these avoidable cancer deaths. We also compare these with the impact of an equivalent number of COVID-19 deaths to understand the welfare consequences of the different health conditions. Methods: We estimate health losses using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lost economic productivity using the human capital (HC) approach. The analysis uses linked English National Health Service (NHS) cancer registration and hospital administrative datasets for patients aged 15e84 years, diagnosed with breast, colorectal, and oesophageal cancer between 1st Jan to 31st Dec 2010, with follow-up data until 31st Dec 2014, and diagnosed with lung

Taking care of the ordinary in extraordinary times—delayed routine care means more morbidity and pre-mature mortality

“…Indeed, it was estimated that on a per-capita basis, cancer deaths were far greater than those due to COVID-19 in the UK. 15 Similar projections were reported by Canada for both colorectal and breast cancers. 16 Suspension of both screening and diagnostic care for cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of morbidity and mortality across the world, is also anticipated to result in a substantially increased health and economic burden.…”

“…Deferred and suspended population screening programmes, including cancer screening, have negatively impacted on the health of the population, resulting in substantial economic losses, avoidable deaths and loss in quality of life. 14 , 15 A national modelling exercise estimated that 40% of the total UK cancer burden could have been avoided if screening services and diagnostic tests were not suspended during the first COVID-19 wave. Indeed, it was estimated that on a per-capita basis, cancer deaths were far greater than those due to COVID-19 in the UK.…”

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Oncological Disease Extent at Staging FDG PET/CT: the ONCOVIPET Study.

“…The severity of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic was clear in November 2020 when a 4-week treatment delay was reported to be associated with a 6 to 17% increased risk of death depending on type of cancer. Delays of up to 12 weeks further increase this risk [32][33][34][35].…”

Covid-19 Pandemijos Poveikis Sergančiųjų Odos Navikais Stacionarinės Onkologinės Pagalbos Prieinamumui

“…Epidemijos pradžioje COVID-19 liga sergančių onkologinių pacientų mirtingumas buvo keturis kartus didesnis, nei vėžiu nesergančių [24]. Daugėjo galimai išvengiamų mirčių nuo vėžio [28]. Tai ankstyvosios vėžio diagnostikos ir savalaikio kompleksinio (chirurginio, che-moterapinio ir spindulinio) gydymo sutrikimų pasekmė [29].…”