Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market

Bastianin, Andrea; Lanza, Alessandro; Manera, Matteo

doi:10.1111/agec.12447

Cited by 37 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The IOD year that had the most significant impact on the decrease in production was the negative year (nIOD), with drops ranging from 1 to 15%. The results of the analysis of the impact of ENSO on production in this study were higher than those of Bastianin, Lanza and Manera (2018) stating that the effects of ENSO on a regional scale and a short period are around 2.2%. Meanwhile, on a long-term scale, it is approximately 8.3%.…”

Section: Events Yearscontrasting

confidence: 67%

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

Sarvina

June

Sutjahjo

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coffee is an annual crop sensitive to climate variability. Most Indonesian coffee is cultivated on marginal lands that are vulnerable to environmental changes, including climate. Indonesia's climate variability is influenced by several factors, including the monsoon, local aspects, and global climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is crucial to identify the impacts of climate variability on both the production and the economy to develop adaptative measures. This study aims to determine the effects of global climate variability, namely ENSO and IOD, on coffee production in several Indonesian production centers. It uses annual coffee production data in the five major production centers in Indonesia. The ENSO indicators used in this study were the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) in the Nino 3.4 region and the IOD indicator in the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The anomaly analysis approach between neutral years and the extreme ENSO and between normal and IOD extreme phases were applied in this study. The results showed that the effects of ENSO and IOD were different in each region. The highest decline in production occurred in the La-Nina year in almost all production centers. The decline in output in the La-Nina year ranged from 6 to 22%. Meanwhile, the IOD that had a decreasing effect on production was positive IOD with a decrease ranging from 1 to 15%.

show abstract

Section: Events Yearscontrasting

confidence: 67%

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

Sarvina

June

Sutjahjo

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Fewer studies analysed reductions in coffee production as a result of climate change; such impacts were identified in Tanzania (Craparo et al 2015), Mexico (Estrada et al 2012;Gay et al 2006) and Brazil (Verhage et al 2017). Studies showing mixed results included positive outcomes of El Niño intra-decadal climate phases on coffee production and exports in Colombia (Bastianin et al 2018), increases in Robusta yield in India due to climate variability (Jayakumar et al 2017) and in Arabica yield in Brazil and Nicaragua owing to carbon fertilisation effect (Rahn et al 2018;Verhage et al 2017).…”

Section: Impacts Of Climate Variability and Change On Coffee Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coffee is one of the most important globally traded commodities and substantially contributes to the livelihoods of millions of smallholders worldwide. As a climate-sensitive perennial crop, coffee is likely to be highly susceptible to changes in climate. Using a systematic approach, we explore evidence from the published academic literature of the influence of climate change and variability, specifically drought, on coffee production. A number of mostly negative impacts were reported in the current literature, including declines in coffee yield, loss of coffee-optimal areas with significant impacts on major global coffee-producing countries and growth in the distribution of pest and disease that indirectly influence coffee cultivation. Current research also identified positive effects of climate change such as increases in coffee-producing niche, particularly in areas at higher altitudes; however, whether these gains might offset losses from other production areas requires further investigation. Other advantages include increases in pollination services and the beneficial effects of elevated carbon concentration, leading to potential yield improvements. Future priorities should focus on major coffee-growing regions projected to be adversely affected by climate change, with specific attention given to potential adaptation strategies tailored to particular farming conditions such as relocation of coffee plantations to more climatically suitable areas, irrigation and agroforestry. The majority of studies were based in the Americas and concentrated on Arabica coffee. A broader spread of research is therefore required, especially for the large growing regions in Asia and for Robusta coffee, to support sustainable production of the global coffee industry.

show abstract

“…For example, the increasing temperatures and sunlight and decreasing rainfalls prompt coffee plants growth which has a beneficial influence (Ubilava 2012a; Bastianin et al . 2018). As reported by Ubilava (2013), El Niño reduces wheat, corn and soybeans prices in the international market and those goods are imported by Colombia which could help reduce inflationary pressures during a strong El Niño .…”

Section: Enso and Its Relationship With The Colombian Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices

Abril‐Salcedo

Melo‐Velandia

Parra‐Amado

2020

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme weather events, like a strong El Niño (ENSO), affect society in many different ways especially in the context of recent globe warming. In the Colombian case, ENSO had a significant impact on consumer food prices during the strongest event in 2015. Our research evaluates the relationship between ENSO and Colombian food inflation growth by using a smooth transition nonlinear model. We estimate the impacts of a strong ENSO on food inflation growth by adopting generalised impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric on inflation. A strong El Niño shock has a significant effect on the food inflation growth from five to nine months after the shock, and the accumulated elasticity is close to 730 basic points. We build the GIRFs for eight different episodes associated with a strong El Niño in the period corresponding from March 1962 to December 2018, and there is no evidence of changes in the size of Colombian food inflation growth responses over time. Finally, the negative shock, associated with a strong La Niña, shows an ambiguous effect on food prices.

show abstract

Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market

Cited by 37 publications

References 55 publications

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

The impacts of climate variability on coffee yield in five indonesian coffee production centers

The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review

Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About