Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?

Talving, Liisa

doi:10.1057/s41295-017-0092-z

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…As the current economic crisis brought to the fore the strong economic and political interdependencies in Europe, the previous arguments would lead us to expect that the impact of economic conditions on the punishment of incumbents should be weaker – or at least not stronger – in the Great Recession. This is also what some empirical studies show (e.g., Magalhães ; Talving ). However, other scholars in the economic voting field suggest being cautious here.…”

Section: Theoretical Framework and Expectationssupporting

confidence: 83%

“…The literature thus shows that voting depends on the economic context and that economic voting is pervasive both in ‘normal’ and ‘crisis’ periods. Increasing work also documents how strongly incumbents were punished in the Great Recession and that the punishment varies in line with the predictions of the economic voting literature – that is, according to how hard the economic crisis hit individual countries (e.g., Bartels ; Hernández & Kriesi ; Talving ).…”

Section: Theoretical Framework and Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 55%

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Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession

Bremer

Hutter

Kriesi

2020

European J Political Res

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This article links the consequences of the Great Recession on protest and electoral politics. It innovates by combining the literature on economic voting with social movement research and by presenting the first integrated, large-scale empirical analysis of protest mobilisation and electoral outcomes in Europe. The economic voting literature offers important insights on how and under what conditions economic crises play out in the short-run. However, it tends to ignore the closely connected dynamics of opposition in the two arenas and the role of protests in politicising economic grievances. More specifically, it is argued that economic protests act as a 'signalling mechanism' by attributing blame to decision makers and by highlighting the political dimension of deteriorating economic conditions. Ultimately, massive protest mobilisation should, thus, amplify the impact of economic hardship on the electoral losses of incumbents and mainstream parties more generally. The empirical analysis to study this relationship relies on an original semi-automated protest event dataset combined with an updated dataset of electoral outcomes in 30 European countries from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that the dynamics of economic protests and electoral punishment are closely related and point to a destabilisation of European party systems during the Great Recession.

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Section: Theoretical Framework and Expectationssupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Theoretical Framework and Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 55%

Dynamics of protest and electoral politics in the Great Recession

Bremer

Hutter

Kriesi

2020

European J Political Res

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“…In addition, voters seem to have been more reactive to government policy decisions in the post-crisis period than before (Talving, 2017). In contrast to these findings, Talving (2018) has also shown that economic effects on incumbent support are surprisingly stable over time, which suggests that economic voting is as pronounced during times of crisis as it is in normal times. Moreover, citizens harmed more by the crisis have a higher propensity to vote for Eurosceptic parties (Hobolt, 2015;Hobolt & de Vries, 2016), a tendency which is driven by two main factors: a general dissatisfaction with mainstream parties on the one hand and, on the other, fundamental concerns of voters about the domestic effects of EU membership or their discontent with the EU's handling of the various crises (Hobolt, 2015;Hobolt & de Vries, 2016;Treib, 2014).…”

Section: Electoral Behaviour In the Eu Under Stress: Abstaining Or Voting For Eurosceptic Partiesmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…Not only have citizens' perceptions changed in times of crisis but so too has their political behaviour. Empirical studies show that the crisis has consequences for individual voting behaviour (Hernández & Kriesi, 2016), although in particular economic effects on incumbent support are less crisis-driven than has previously been assumed (Talving, 2018). The bulk of empirical studies focuses on the vote of government and mainstream parties as well as Eurosceptic parties in times of crisis, whereas scholars have traditionally been less interested in voters' electoral participation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electoral Behaviour in a European Union under Stress

Braun

Tausendpfund

2020

PaG

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Is electoral behaviour affected by the current challenges of the EU and, if it is, through which channels and mechanisms? This study offers a cross-national analysis together with a broad understanding of both the crisis phenomenon and electoral behaviour. To investigate this research question appropriately, we first distinguish at the most general level between the two main behavioural alternatives at play when it comes to electoral behaviour, namely abstention and vote choice. Second, and no less important, we differentiate between the mechanisms that mediate the relationship between the ‘EU under stress’ and electoral behaviour, namely egocentric and sociotropic economic voting motivations. Drawing on data from the European Election Study 2014, our article provides important insights into the study of electoral behaviour in an EU under stress. First, we are able to show that the multiple crises that have hit the EU have the potential to determine both turnout and the decision to vote for a Eurosceptic party. Second, different mechanisms are in play for each of the two behavioural alternatives: Turnout is clearly related to egocentric determinants and thus depends on individuals’ personal exposure to the financial crisis. Conversely, the decision to vote for a Eurosceptic party is based on a different mechanism. Voters—without necessarily being personally affected by the crisis—have a higher propensity to vote for a Eurosceptic party if they perceive their country to be threatened by such an EU under stress. These findings add to a better understanding of the EU’s multi-level democracy.

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“…Similarly, Talving (2017), analyses the European Election Studies (ees) data for 12 Western European countries in 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009, and 2014 and finds that there is very little abrupt change in economic effects over time. The statistical relationship between the economy and voting remained remarkably constant and was not subject to short-term fluctuations in the period analysed.…”

Section: The Eurozone Crisis and Politicizationmentioning

confidence: 99%