Economic voting in Latin America: A general model

Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.; Ratto, María Celeste

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.023

Cited by 84 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…These articles contribute to a growing literature on the dynamics of approval in presidential systems (e.g., Arce and Carrión, 2010;Carlin, Carreras and Love, forthcoming;Cuzán and Bundrick, 1997;Carlin, Hartlyn and Martínez-Gallardo, 2012;Johnson and Schwindt-Bayer 2009;Pérez-Liñán, 2007) by highlighting a set of factors that explain why some presidents deviate from the typical cyclical pattern. In line with previous research on economic voting in Latin America (e.g., Boelhouwer Menezes, 2018;Benton, 2005;Cabezas, 2015;Cabezas and Navia, 2010;Echegaray, 2005;Gélineau, 2007;Johnson and Schwindt-Bayer, 2009;Lewis-Beck and Ratto, 2013;Love and Windsor, 2018;Luna, 2002;Menezes, 2018;Murillo and Visconti, 2017;Singer, 2013Singer, , 2015Singer and Carlin, 2013;Visconti, 2017), all of the authors in this special issue agree that economic outputs -and economic perceptions of performance-go a long way in explaining patterns of executive approval. Also in line with previous work (Powell and Whitten, 1993), some of the articles find that institutions can alter patterns of approval.…”

Section: Case Studies Of Outliers Of Presidential Approvalsupporting

confidence: 85%

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

Carlin¹,

Martínez-Gallardo²

2019

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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Presidential approval tends to exhibit the dynamics of honeymoon, decline, and a rebound as elections near. But several presidential administrations and, indeed, some countries themselves, do not conform to this pattern. This introduction to the special issue identifies and classifies outliers to the typical dynamics of approval using a 12-category taxonomy and data on 140 presidential administrations in 18 Latin American countries from the Executive Approval Project 1.0. Contributors to this special issue use this taxonomy to select outlier cases to explain in their respective articles. This combination of cross-national and case-study approaches suggest a more general theory of presidential approval can be constructed by systematically testing new hypotheses generated in this special issue concerning the role of governing style, political communication, security, policy choice, and institutional context. 1 The authors are grateful to Mariano Torcal and the editorial board of RLOP for their encouragement and support of this special issue. We thank Peter Enns,

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Section: Case Studies Of Outliers Of Presidential Approvalsupporting

confidence: 85%

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

Carlin¹,

Martínez-Gallardo²

2019

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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“…Research on retrospective voting has provided a wide range of evidence that voters consider parties' and politicians' past behaviour for their voting decisions. Many scholars have studied the status of the economy as a predictor of voting choices (Lewis‐Beck & Ratto ; Fiorina ; Key ). It appears that elections are instruments through which voters reward incumbents for good economic performance, and punish them for bad economic performance.…”

Section: Expanding Retrospective Voting To Pledgesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

Matthieß

2020

European J Political Res

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Does pledge fulfilment bear any electoral consequences for government parties? While previous research on retrospective voting has largely focused on electoral accountability with respect to the economy, the theoretical framework presented in this study links government parties' performance to their previous electoral pledges. It is argued that government parties are more likely to be rewarded by voters when they have fulfilled more pledges during the legislative term. Good pledge performance of a party is associated with the ability to maximise policy benefits (accomplishment) and to be a responsible actor that will stick to its promises in the future as well (competence). Analysing data from 69 elections in 14 countries shows that a government party's electoral outcome is affected by its previous pledge performance. A government party that fulfils a higher share of election pledges is more likely to prevent electoral losses. This finding indicates that voters react at the polls to party pledge fulfilment, which highlights the crucial role of promissory representation in democratic regimes. Surprisingly and in contrast with economic voting, there is no evidence that retrospective pledge voting is moderated by clarity of responsibility.

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“…Research on industrialized democracies widely documents the economic vote theory (Lewis-Beck & Paldam, 2000;Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier, 2007;Duch & Stevenson, 2008). Studies on Latin American cases replicate those findings (Lewis-Beck & Ratto, 2013;Gélineau & Singer, 2015;Nadeau et al, 2017). The basic premise is that voters reward or punish incumbents depending on the performance of the national economy.…”

Section: Economic Votementioning

confidence: 76%

The Rise of Alternative Presidential Candidates in Chile, 2009-2017

Navia¹,

Perelló²

2020

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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This article explores the growing popularity of alternative presidential candidates — those from outside the two dominant coalitions — in Chile from 2009 to 2017. Following a theoretical discussion that focuses on the causes of voter discontent with the political establishment, we formulate four hypotheses. We view support for alternative presidential candidates as a function of ideological detachment, declining political engagement, the economic vote, and socio-demographic shifts in the electorate. We use three pre-electoral Centro de Estudios Públicos surveys to present probit models and predicted probabilities. Our findings suggest that a distinct segment of Chilean voters is behind the rise of alternative presidential candidates. Younger and more educated voters who identify less with the traditional left-right ideological scale and political parties and suffer from economic anxiety—viewing the economy as performing well nationally while remaining pessimistic about their financial prospects—comprise this subgroup.

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Economic voting in Latin America: A general model

Cited by 84 publications

References 10 publications

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

Introducción Número Especial: OUTLIERS OF PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: DYNAMICS, LEVELS, AND RATES

Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment

The Rise of Alternative Presidential Candidates in Chile, 2009-2017

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