Economics and the Left Party Vote in Scandinavia: A Cross‐National Analysis

Abstract

While the literature on economic voting is vast, relatively little is known about how the economy a¡ects party vote shares in Scandinavia per se. This article argues that left of center parties rather than incumbent governments per se bear the brunt of economic judgments at the voting booth. In large part this is due to these parties' preeminent role in establishing and maintaining the institutional welfare systems of these countries. We examine this hypothesis using pooled time-series data for Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from 1960 to 1991.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

“…However Dassonneville and Hooghe (2012) find that in Belgium, a Socialist Party incumbent is actually punished for rising unemployment. The results of Pacek and Radcliff (1999) point in the same direction, with respect to leftist parties in Scandinavia. By way of contrast, Arnesen (2012) concludes that the relationship in Norway is conditional, with the left gaining votes from increasing unemployment when in opposition, but losing votes when in government.…”

“…As stated, Hypothesis 1 posits a general monotonic relationship between unemployment rate change and left vote. However some of the above empirical case studies imply that incumbency itself may condition the relationship (Arnesen 2012; Dassonneville and Hooghe 2012; Magalhães, Aguiar and Lewis-Beck 2012; Pacek and Radcliff 1999). In particular, it appears that when the Socialists are in office, they may benefit less electorally from worsening unemployment.…”

Personal Values and Public Opinion*

“…Through the creation of the distinctive Scandinavian welfare states, social democratic parties have continued to exercise a disproportionate influence on democratic politics. The parties may be indelibly marked in each country's mass public as the natural parties and instruments of government (Lafferty, 1990;Pacek and Radcliff, 1999), viewed as being widely responsible for their shared socioeconomic life. In this sense, the values of social democracy are so thoroughly entrenched in popular imagination that they are traditional (Lafferty and Knutsen, 1985).…”

Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia

“…This is especially true of the Scandinavian countries, in which evidence for economic voting is murky at best. Researchers have often failed to identify a relationship between the fraction of the electorate who supports the parties in power and objective economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and unemployment in Scandinavia (Pacek & Radcliff ; Martinsson ; Stubager et al ).…”