Effect of global change on bivalve rearing activity and the need for adaptive management

Abstract

A downscaling experiment linking a regional atmospheric model to local ecosystem and target species population dynamics models was conducted to evaluate the effects of IPCC climate change scenarios on a temperate coastal lagoon ecosystem, the lagoon of Venice (Italy), along with goods and services provided by this ecosystem. Our results indicate that the changes in water temperature and reduction in plankton productivity caused by the modification of seasonal precipitation patterns will affect habitat suitability for clam growth and aquaculture. Simulations show that aquaculture, which has substantial economic value, will suffer, and they highlight the need for management policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Extrapolation of these conclusions to other coastal systems might be particularly relevant for socio-economic systems in which clam farming is crucial for a self-sustaining economy.

Nephrops norvegicus in the Adriatic Sea: Connectivity modeling, essential fish habitats, and management area network

“…The analysis of uncertainty in the larval behavior model, addressing temperature tolerance and searching time , highlights the sensitivity of Nephrops to the temperature tolerance parameter, suggesting the need for specific experimental observations to provide an even more robust model parameterization. This analysis also points to the need for specific studies to assess the possible effects of winter marine heat waves associated with projected climate change on larval mortality and recruitment (Galli et al., 2018; Melaku et al, 2010) and in support of the development of adaptive and mitigating management strategies (IPCC, 2014). However, we must clarify that herein, we computed only the mortality due to temperature tolerance and sediment settling suitability and that the total larval mortality, considering disease, starvation, and predation, could be higher (up to 90%, as reported in Martha‐Almeida et al, 2008).…”

Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5

“…These spatial distribution models for demersal species were developed for the best extension of trawl survey data to the whole study area from 2008 to 2018. The approach developed here highlights the relevance of integrating oceanographic variables in the analysis of trawl survey data before their use as inputs in stock assessment (Cao et al 2017) and ecosystem modelling (see for example, Melaku Canu et al 2010;Grüss et al 2014;Grüss et al 2018). This approach sets the basis for providing projections of the potential effects on species distribution and biomass of future environmental changes.…”

Modeling Carbon Budgets and Acidification in the Mediterranean Sea Ecosystem Under Contemporary and Future Climate

“…More recently, Pagès et al (2020) produced a continuous RCP8.5 run, that assumed no effect of temperature on the kinetics of the biogeochemical processes and no changes in nutrient loads from rivers, and showed that the climate change related variations in (only) hydrodynamics suffice in causing changes in biogeochemistry (increased oligotrophication, reduced production, decreased phytoplankton abundance, nitrate decline in the surface layer) but mainly in the second half of the 21st century, and only in the western basin. Other projections refer to simulations performed within recent EU projects (Boero et al, 2016), and in a variety of downscaling studies at the regional (Holt et al, 2012;Herrmann et al, 2014), subregional (Lamon et al, 2014) or local (Cossarini et al, 2008;Salon et al, 2008;Canu et al, 2010) scales.…”