2016
DOI: 10.3133/ofr20161125
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Effects of climate change on tidal marshes along a latitudinal gradient in California

Abstract: For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit

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Cited by 31 publications
(35 citation statements)
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“…To date, local insights are best acquired through finescale SLR assessments conducted for individual wetland sites. Our SLR response predictions corroborate their overall finding that these sites will experience conversion of mid and high marsh to low marsh with modest SLR projections (0.44 m) and gains of intertidal mudflat and subtidal habitat at the expense of vegetated marsh with high SLR projections (1.66 m) (Thorne et al, 2016). Detailed field collections of physical and biological data were used to parameterize the processbased WARMER model (Swanson et al, 2014) to predict SLR response for a subset area within the study sites.…”
Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitysupporting
confidence: 76%
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“…To date, local insights are best acquired through finescale SLR assessments conducted for individual wetland sites. Our SLR response predictions corroborate their overall finding that these sites will experience conversion of mid and high marsh to low marsh with modest SLR projections (0.44 m) and gains of intertidal mudflat and subtidal habitat at the expense of vegetated marsh with high SLR projections (1.66 m) (Thorne et al, 2016). Detailed field collections of physical and biological data were used to parameterize the processbased WARMER model (Swanson et al, 2014) to predict SLR response for a subset area within the study sites.…”
Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitysupporting
confidence: 76%
“…Detailed field collections of physical and biological data were used to parameterize the processbased WARMER model (Swanson et al, 2014) to predict SLR response for a subset area within the study sites. Mugu Lagoon is estimated to become 100% intertidal mudflat with 1.66 m SLR (Thorne et al, 2016), whereas we predict the future habitat composition to be 50% intertidal mudflat and 25% Specifically, projections for Upper Newport Bay by Thorne et al (2016) indicate that 60% of the wetland area will be converted to subtidal with 1.66 m SLR, and this study estimates a total of 57% subtidal under the same SLR scenario.…”
Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning
confidence: 64%
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“…The grassland habitat in the Sacramento Valley may decline by 1-20% by 2070 due to warmer winter temperatures and variable precipitation [60]. The eastern edge of the Central Valley might become climatically unsuitable for grassland habitats including valley oak under drier conditions and the northern Central Valley to a large degree may become unsuitable for such habitats under wetter conditions [61]. It is estimated that 24-59% of current California foothill, valley forests, and woodlands will not be climatically suitable for oak woodlands by the end of the century.…”
Section: California Agricultural Vulnerability To Climate Risksmentioning
confidence: 99%