Effects of Future Climate Change on a River Habitat in an Italian Alpine Catchment

Viganò, Giulia; Confortola, Gabriele; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Cabrini, R; Canobbio, S; Mezzanotte, Valeria; Bocchiola, Daniele

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001293

Cited by 23 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 58 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the Italian Alps, glaciers' shrinking in the last few decades (Diolaiuti et al, 2012a,b), together with visible decrease of seasonal snow cover (Bocchiola and Diolaiuti, 2010) is likely to have decreased summer flows at the highest altitudes (Bocchiola, 2014). Projections for Alpine catchments indicate reduced summer precipitation, and decreased snowfall during winter, which would be main reason for large prospective reduction of summer stream flows until 2100 (Confortola et al, 2013;Viganò et al, 2015).…”

Section: Future Hydrological Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin

Soncini

Bocchiola

Confortola

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151km(2), 4200-8848ma.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62km(2)). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012-2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045-2054, and 2090-2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012-2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (-4% vs CR on average) at 2045-2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. -26% vs CR on average at 2090-2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500ma.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by -50% or more, and their ice covered area by -30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required.

show abstract

Section: Future Hydrological Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin

Soncini

Bocchiola

Confortola

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

108

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Viganò et al, 2015;Ahmed and Tsanis, 2016), especially for ecological purposes (e.g. Caiola et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

Saez

Muñoz‐Mas²,

Solana‐Gutiérrez³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. −49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 • C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 • C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

show abstract

“…In a more complex approach, but typically applied at finer spatial scales, climate change forcing is propagated through a modelling cascade consisting of a hydrological model loosely coupled with a habitat suitability or species distribution model (Jaeger, Olden, & Pelland, ; Kakouei et al, ; Kuemmerlen et al, ; Morid, Delavar, Eagderi, & Kumar, ; Muñoz‐Mas, Lopez‐Nicolas, Martinez‐Capel, & Pulido‐Velazquez, ; Mustonen et al, ; Viganò et al, ; Woznicki, Nejadhashemi, Tang, & Wang, ). For example, Jaeger et al () predicted a higher frequency of zero‐flow days in an intermittent stream in Arizona, United States, which would inevitably lead to increased channel fragmentation and a reduced network‐wide hydrological connectivity during spawning of native fish.…”

Section: Predicting Impact Of Climate Change On Hydrological Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Predicted effects of climate change on riverine biota are only implicit in such studies. In a more complex approach, but typically applied at finer spatial scales, climate change forcing is propagated through a modelling cascade consisting of a hydrological model loosely coupled with a habitat suitability or species distribution model (Jaeger, Olden, & Pelland, 2014;Kakouei et al, 2018;Kuemmerlen et al, 2015;Morid, Delavar, Eagderi, & Kumar, 2016;Muñoz-Mas, Lopez-Nicolas, Martinez-Capel, & Pulido-Velazquez, 2016;Mustonen et al, 2018;Viganò et al, 2015;Woznicki, Nejadhashemi, Tang, & Wang, 2016). For example, Jaeger Still higher levels of complexity can be achieved by including a hydraulic model in the modelling chain, but such approaches are typically applied only at small catchment scales (Guse et al, 2015;Papadaki et al, 2016).…”

Section: Pred Ic Ting Impac T Of Climate Chang E On Hydrolog Ic Al mentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of floods and droughts on riverine ecosystems under a changing climate

Parasiewicz

King

Webb

et al. 2019

Fisheries Management Eco

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Floods and droughts are key driving forces shaping aquatic ecosystems. Climate change may alter key attributes of these events and consequently health and distribution of aquatic species. Improved knowledge of biological responses to different types of floods and droughts in rivers should allow the better prediction of the ecological consequences of climate change‐induced flow alterations. This review highlights that in unmodified ecosystems, the intensity and direction of biological impacts of floods and droughts vary, but the overall consequence is an increase in biological diversity and ecosystem health. To predict the impact of climate change, metrics that allow the quantitative linking of physical disturbance attributes to the directions and intensities of biological impacts are needed. The link between habitat change and the character of biological response is provided by the frequency of occurrence of the river wave characteristic—that is the event's predictability. The severity of impacts of floods is largely related to the river wave amplitude (flood magnitude), while the impact of droughts is related to river wavelength (drought duration).

show abstract

Effects of Future Climate Change on a River Habitat in an Italian Alpine Catchment

Cited by 23 publications

References 58 publications

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin

Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

The role of floods and droughts on riverine ecosystems under a changing climate

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About