Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling

Abstract

BackgroundGlobal climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe.MethodsSpecies Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of “maximum entropy”, as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used.ResultsIn both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species.ConclusionsOur models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.

Modeling the Present and Future Geographic Distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae), in the Continental United States

“…[31][32][33] This recognition, and the aforementioned agricultural and public health significance of ticks, underlie a growing interest in tick distribution modeling based on future climate scenarios. [34][35][36][37] Predictions of these models may provide valuable forecasts of changing acarological risk associated with tick-borne diseases that could be used to inform vector monitoring and control efforts and public health campaigns.…”

Febre Maculosa No Brasil: Situação Epidemiológica Atual E a Distribuição Geográfica De Carrapatos Em Cenários De Mudanças Climáticas

“…Sabendo-se que as variações climáticas podem determinar a distribuição dos carrapatos, alguns estudos têm discutido modelos preditivos que consideram diferentes cenários climáticos, e assim podem ser utilizados para auxiliar o entendimento da distribuição dos vetores para as próximas décadas e consequentemente na relação de ocorrência de doenças transmitidas por estes vetores (Lindgren et al, 2000;Gray et al, 2009;Porretta et al, 2013 (Nava et al, 2014;Martins et al, 2016) (Apêndice 9.3). …”

“…Modelos preditivos foram desenvolvidos usando cenários climáticos futuros para avaliar e entender as possíveis mudanças da distribuição de carrapatos (Lindgren e Gustafson, 2001;Estrada-Peña, 2008;Porretta et al, 2013;Estrada-Peña et al, 2015). Alguns desses estudos estimaram expansão da distribuição de carrapatos devido ao aquecimento climático (Estrada-Peña e Venzal, 2007;Porretta et al, 2013).…”

Potential impacts of climate change on veterinary medicinal residues in livestock produce: An island of Ireland perspective††This paper is one of a series of reviews on “Climate Change and Food Safety – an Island of Ireland perspective”.

“…However, precise prediction of climate effects on the incidence of ectoparasite infestations is uncertain due to subtle and conflicting interactions of humidity and temperature, free-living and host-bound life stages, and indirect effects on the host species and husbandry practices (Wall, Rose, Ellse, & Morgan, 2011). Indeed, one recent Europe-wide model predicts less favourable conditions for tick survival on IoI by 2050, but improving conditions by 2080 (Porretta et al, 2013). Nevertheless, climate change raises the possibility of changing patterns of veterinary drug administration to combat ectoparasites with consequent potential for impacts on residues in edible tissues.…”