Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Wang, Xuhui; Zhao, Chuang; Müller, Christoph; Wang, Chenzhi; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A.; Peñuelas, Josep; Asseng, Senthold; Li, Tao; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Yao; Li, Laurent; Piao, S.

doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0569-7

Cited by 132 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Rain-fed cropping systems are highly dependent on climatic conditions and vulnerable to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, which are intensifying as a result of global warming ( 2 ). Climate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns ( 3 ) and exacerbate water- and heat-stress events over rain-fed croplands ( 4 – 8 ). Irrigation expansion over water-stressed rain-fed croplands is an effective agricultural adaptation measure in response to climate change ( 9 , 10 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

Rosa

Chiarelli

Sangiorgio

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

147

117

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Climate change is expected to affect crop production worldwide, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions. It is still unknown how irrigation water needs will change in a warmer planet and where freshwater will be locally available to expand irrigation without depleting freshwater resources. Here, we identify the rain-fed cropping systems that hold the greatest potential for investment in irrigation expansion because water will likely be available to suffice irrigation water demand. Using projections of renewable water availability and irrigation water demand under warming scenarios, we identify target regions where irrigation expansion may sustain crop production under climate change. Our results also show that global rain-fed croplands hold significant potential for sustainable irrigation expansion and that different irrigation strategies have different irrigation expansion potentials. Under a 3 °C warming, we find that a soft-path irrigation expansion with small monthly water storage and deficit irrigation has the potential to expand irrigated land by 70 million hectares and feed 300 million more people globally. We also find that a hard-path irrigation expansion with large annual water storage can sustainably expand irrigation up to 350 million hectares, while producing food for 1.4 billion more people globally. By identifying where irrigation can be expanded under a warmer climate, this work may serve as a starting point for investigating socioeconomic factors of irrigation expansion and may guide future research and resources toward those agricultural communities and water management institutions that will most need to adapt to climate change.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

Rosa

Chiarelli

Sangiorgio

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

147

117

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Relative to the 1960s, the temperature distribution of crops growing periods in each rotation area shifted towards high-temperature regions in the 2000s (Figure 2), but significant differences in the adaptability of different crops to environmental temperature changes were found. Climate warming was generally believed to reduce yields when they exceeded an optimum level, but they can increase crops yields in cool regions where temperatures were well below the optimum level [1,2,36]. The temperatures in South China have been high in the past.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under the influence of climate change and frequent extreme climate events, the photosynthetic production of crops faces great challenges [1]. To stabilize crop productivity and essentially ensure food security, it is thus necessary to make effective adjustments to agronomies depending on prediction of crop growth responses to climate change [2]. We need to assess the crop photosynthesis production response to climate change, on the one hand, in order to ensure food security in China [3], and on the other hand to increase the capacity for agroecosystems to manage atmospheric CO 2 , thereby increasing carbon sink potential.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Impact of Atmospheric Warming on Staple Crop Growth in China in the 1960s and 2000s

Zhang

et al. 2020

Atmosphere

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Responses of crop growth to climate warming are fundamental to future food security. The response of crops to climate change may be subtly different at their growing stages. Close insights into the differentiated stage-dependent responses of crops are significantly important in making adaptive adjustments of crops’ phenological optimization and cultivar improvement in diverse cropping systems. Using the Agro-C model, we studied the influence of past climate warming on crops in typical cropping systems in China. The results showed that while the temperature had increased distinctly from the 1960s to 2000s, the temperature frequency distributions in the growth season of crops moved to the high-temperature direction. The low temperature days during the crop growth periods that suppress crop growth decreased in the winter wheat area in North and East China, rice and maize areas in Northeast China, and the optimum temperature days increased significantly. As a result, the above ground biomass (AGB) of rice and maize in Northeast China and winter wheat in North and East China increased distinctly, while that of rice in South China had no significant change. A comparison of the key growth periods before and after heading (silking) showed that the warming before heading (silking) made a great contribution to the increase in the AGB, especially for winter wheat.

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“…Climate changes show asymmetrical warming, and warming is typically greater during the night than during the day, resulting in a narrowing of the diurnal temperature range [2]. Since the temperature is a key factor in regulating crop development and growth, future climatic warming will affect the global grain production substantially [3][4][5][6]. Crop production is experiencing increases in both the frequency and the intensity of nocturnal warming (NW).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Open Field Simulating Nocturnal Warming on Summer Maize Performance in the North China Plain

et al. 2021

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Climate changes show asymmetrical warming, and warming is typically greater at night than during the day. To understand how nocturnal warming (NW) affects the performance of maize (Zea mays L.), an open-field experiment with a free air temperature increase (FATI) facility was conducted for three seasons during 2014 to 2016 at Luancheng eco-agro-experimental station on the North China Plain (NCP). Three nocturnal warming scenarios were set up: the entire growing period (T1, from V4 to maturity), only the vegetative stages (T2, from V4 to a week presilking) and the reproductive stages (T3, from a week presilking to R6). The treatment without NW was the control. Maize lodged seriously in 2015 due to heavy rainfall combined with strong winds, and the experiment failed. The results from 2014 and 2016 were analyzed in this study. During the experimental duration, the average nocturnal temperature was increased by approximately 3.6 and 3.3 °C at 150 cm height and 2.0 and 1.7 °C at the soil surface during the vegetative stages. The corresponding increases were 2.1 and 2.5 °C and 0.7 and 1.2 °C at the soil surface during the reproductive stages in 2014 and 2016, respectively, as compared with that of the CK treatment. NW during the whole growth period significantly decreased maize yield for the two seasons. Treatment T2 had a smaller impact on maize yield than T1 and T3. The silking stage was delayed by 2 days in 2014 and 2016 under T1. As a result, presilking duration and VT-R1 interval were prolonged by 1–2 days; and the postsilking duration were shortened by 1–3 days under T1. The soil moisture in the warmed plots was slightly lower than that in the control plots in the 2014 and during the stages before the earlier grain-filling stages in 2016, but NW decreased soil water content greatly at the later grain-filling stages in 2016, which caused the fast green leaf senescence and exacerbated the negative effects of NW on maize yield. NW for the whole growth duration (T1) significantly decreased seed weight and harvest index. NW increased leaf nighttime respiration rate in both seasons. No significant effects of NW on ear leaf net photosynthesis, leaf area, and specific leaf weight at early grain-filling stage were observed, irrespective of the warming stage and season. The results suggested that reproductive stages were more sensitive to NW compared to vegetative stages under the growing conditions of NCP. The negative effects of NW were worsened in dry seasons. The reduction in maize yield with nocturnal warming was driven by the reduction in the aboveground carbon allocation from shoot to grain during postanthesis stage.

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Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Cited by 132 publications

References 52 publications

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 °C warmer climate

Modeling the Impact of Atmospheric Warming on Staple Crop Growth in China in the 1960s and 2000s

Open Field Simulating Nocturnal Warming on Summer Maize Performance in the North China Plain

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