BACKGROUND
Currently, there is an increasing global interest for the study of how
infectious diseases could be linked to climate and weather variability. The
Chagas disease was described in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, and is caused by the
flagellate protozoan
Trypanosoma cruzi
. The Chagas disease
is considered one of the biggest concerns in public health in Latin America.
In Chile, the main vectors involved in the transmission of
T.
cruzi
are arthropods of the Triatominae subfamily. Moreover,
another main transmission way is through of vectors by fecal-urine way,
however, oral way also has been described among others transmission
form.
OBJECTIVES
In order to get understand outbreaks of Chagas-disease, we search for
possible relationships between the frequency of cases in the Chilean
population and atmospheric oscillations.
METHODS
We explored the two most important atmospheric oscillations in the Southern
Hemisphere: southern oscillation index (SOI) and Antarctic oscillation
(AAO), during the available years with official data. Because the number of
migrant people born outside from Chile increasing significantively between
2014 and 2018, we used for the analysis two different periods from data
available official data: (i) 2001 to 2014, (ii) 2001 to 2017.
FINDINGS
For both periods we observed a significant and positive relation between AAO
one year before. However, for the 2001 to 2014 period positive SOI one year
before, which is related with La Niña phases, was the more important
variable.
MAIN CONCLUSIONS
The Chagas disease frequency per year in Chile was found to depend mainly on
SOI in previous year, whose values can be determined one year in advance.
Therefore, it is possible to partially forecast annual frequency patterns.
This could have important applications in public health strategies and for
allocating resources for the management of the disease.