Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Demeritt, David; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Joanna; Bartholmes, J.; Ramos, Maria‐Helena

doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001

Cited by 173 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Elles peuvent par suite être employées pour l'évaluation de différents critères concernant la gestion des aménagements ou les alertes d'inondation, en rendant possible la prise en compte d'un risque explicite. L'EPS constitue l'un des domaines les plus prometteurs de la recherche météorologique pour compenser l'incertitude liée aux prévi-sions déterministes [11].…”

Section: N Prise En Compte Des Prévisions D'ensembleunclassified

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

et al. 2009

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Section: N Prise En Compte Des Prévisions D'ensembleunclassified

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

et al. 2009

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“…Globally there is a well-recognized need for improved techniques and approaches to flood forecasting (Krzysztofowicz 2001;Pappenberger & Beven 2006;Demeritt et al 2007). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The shift towards QPFs from NWP models for operational forecasting systems has highlighted the need to address uncertainty in the rainfall forecast (Demeritt et al 2007). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study

René

Madsen

Mark

2012

Journal of Hydroinformatics

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The phenomenon of urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and can have significant economic and social consequences. The complex nature of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has facilitated a need to model and manage uncertainty. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for modelling uncertainty from single-valued QPFs at different forecast lead times. The uncertainty models in the form of probability distributions of rainfall forecasts combined with a sewer model is an important advancement in real-time forecasting at the urban scale. The methodological approach utilized in this paper involves a retrospective comparison between historical forecasted rainfall from a NWP model and observed rainfall from rain gauges from which conditional probability distributions of rainfall forecasts are derived. Two different sampling methods, respectively, a direct rainfall quantile approach and the Latin hypercube sampling based method were used to determine the uncertainty in forecasted variables (water level, volume) for a test urban area, the city of Aarhus. The results show the potential for applying probabilistic rainfall forecasts and their subsequent use in urban drainage forecasting for estimation of prediction uncertainty.

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“…Several methodologies are actively studied to deal with this source of uncertainty, e. g., ensemble forecasts [3] or the analogous sorting approach [4]. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling uncertainty (including parameter uncertainty) is far from being negligible either.…”

Section: Operational Forecasts Uncertainty Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational forecast uncertainty assessment for better information to stakeholders and crisis managers

Berthet

Piotte²,

Gaumé³

et al. 2016

E3S Web Conf.

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Abstract. Flood forecasting uncertainty is crucial information for decision makers. However, deterministic only forecasts have been communicated in France until now, like in many other countries. The French Flood Forecast Centres (FFCs) recently set up a new service which aims at publishing quantitative forecasts along with their associated uncertainty. Two surveys (one of the greater audience and identified end-users, another of FFCs worldwide) were conducted to design it. The forecasters' toolbox was then supplemented with two new tools. The first one provides automatic forecasting uncertainty estimations calibrated on past forecasting error series. The second one allows the forecasters to incorporate their own expertise to adjust the automatically calculated uncertainty estimation. The evaluation of the forecast uncertainty estimations issued in real time in 2014 suggests that even if these assessments are perfectible, they are already informative and useful for end-users. The first feedbacks from forecasters and crisis managers also show that if the assessment of probabilistic forecasts remains a technical challenge, their use is foremost a human challenge. This move is a paradigm change for both forecasters and decision makers. Therefore, they have to be accompanied in order to achieve this deep shift in their professional practice.

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Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting

Cited by 173 publications

References 35 publications

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study

Operational forecast uncertainty assessment for better information to stakeholders and crisis managers

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