Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach

Betrie, G.; Sadiq, Rehan; Nichol, Craig; Morin, Kevin A.; Tesfamariam, Solomon

doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2015.07.022

Cited by 15 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…neurological alteration, kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension and heart disease (Neuberger et al 2009;Wright et al 2006). The transport of ARD to water resources affects aquatic ecosystems by a number of direct and indirect pathways, which include habitat modification, niche loss, bioaccumulation within the food chain, loss of food sources, elimination of sensitive species, reduction in primary productivity, and food chain modification (Betrie et al 2016;Gray 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rocks: a review

Muniruzzaman

Pedretti

2020

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Polluted drainage from weathering of sulfide-rich waste rock deposits can cause long-term impairment to waterways and biodiversity near mining sites. Mechanistic models represent established tools to support the predictions of the quantity and quality of waste rock drainage, and their associated risks. Yet, model-based predictions in typical waste rock systems are ubiquitously uncertain because of the strongly heterogeneous nature of these waste deposits. Embedding heterogeneity within predictive modeling is complicated by the magnitude and level of knowledge of the waste rock heterogeneity, and the large number of scale-dependent parameters feeding the model equations. This review encompasses deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches that emphasize consolidated tools and emerging modeling solutions to deal with heterogeneity for the modeling of waste rocks. Physical (e.g., variability of texture, hydraulic and pneumatic properties), geochemical (e.g., variability of mineralogy and kinetic parameters), and thermal heterogeneities are evaluated. The review points out the importance of stochastic modeling as a fundamental approach to embed uncertainty in long-term model-based decisions. Regulators and decision makers must be convinced of the benefit of using stochastic modeling, which is still considered to belong mainly to the academic sphere.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rocks: a review

Muniruzzaman

Pedretti

2020

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…Through the interpretation of previous research literature, it can be found that it can directly express the transfer process of "Parameter→Model→Result" by using probabilistic analysis method to deal with the problem of parameter uncertainty (Abrahamsson, 2002;Betrie et al, 2015); but it is noteworthy that the environmental models currently used to realize the quantitative description of pollutant migration is becoming more and more complex, this kind of models often need a lot of input parameters. When using the probability analysis method to carry out the uncertainty analysis, the researchers usually adopt the empirical method and subjective to determine which parameters needed to be involved in probabilistic sampling analysis, and do not consider the contribution of the parameters to the overall uncertainty of the model's output, which would affect the accuracy of the uncertainty analysis results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessment Caused by Hazardous Chemical Accident

Liu¹

2019

Appl. Ecol. Env. Res.

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Environmental risk assessment is an important part of environmental management research. However, due to uncertainties in the environmental risk system, assessment results may be partially incomplete. This study takes the leakage accident of liquid ammonia as a typical case. By combining the method of Morris parameter sensitivity analysis with the Latin Hypercube Sampling, the probability sampling analysis is conducted on a group of parameters that have the greatest impact on the output of the accident consequence calculation model, as well as a set of radius values for lethal range caused by toxic gas and its probability distribution function are obtained. based on the probability distribution, the author took advantage of the GIS tool to conduct a comprehensive analysis, thereby calculating the indexes that characterize the status of regional environmental risk. The research ideas proposed in this paper have effectively improved the rationality of the selection of the parameters in the uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the assessment results based on the uncertainty analysis can cover all possible accident scenarios, which not only comprehensively reflects the risk status of emergency environmental accidents, but also provides more scientific and reliable information for environmental management.

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“…The toxicity of metals from this AMD does not depend only on the total concentration but also on chemical speciation; therefore, analyzing the speciation of metals in water is crucial for understanding metal behavior (Korfali and Davies, 2003). The speciation of metals in water can be predicted using the geochemical-based model PHREEQC; the model can simulate geochemical speciation, acid-base equilibrium, redox equilibrium, precipitation/dissolution, adsorption/desorption, and transport (Betrie et al, 2015;Thanh et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metal Speciation in the Rivers Around Potchefstroom Based on Seasonality

Manyatshe¹,

Fosso‐Kankeu²,

Berg³

et al. 2018

Water Environment Research

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About 44 surface water samples were collected in the wet and dry seasons around mining areas near the city of Potchefstroom in South Africa, and physicochemical parameters were analyzed to assess the speciation of pollutants and impact on dispersion potential. It was found that concentrations of the trace elements measured decreased significantly during the dry season. High concentrations of trace elements during the wet season were correlated to high effluents from anthropogenic sources which were flowing into the surface water. Aqueous metal speciation in both seasons was conducted using the PHREEQC geochemical modelling code. The seasonal variation of species observed was due to changes in the physicochemical quality of water between the two seasons. Collected data indicated that high percentages of Ca and Mg were present as free hydrate species, whereas the Fe, Cd, As, and U were mostly present as carbonate or hydroxide species.

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Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach

Cited by 15 publications

References 38 publications

Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rocks: a review

Mechanistic models supporting uncertainty quantification of water quality predictions in heterogeneous mining waste rocks: a review

Parameter Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Risk Assessment Caused by Hazardous Chemical Accident

Metal Speciation in the Rivers Around Potchefstroom Based on Seasonality

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