Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 – 2017

Chen, Qi; Rui, Jia; Hu, Qingqing; Peng, Ying; Hao, Zhang; Zhao, Zeyu; Tong, Yeqing; Wu, Yang; Su, Yanhua; Zhao, Bin; Guan, Xiaohong; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1186/s12879-020-04976-x

Cited by 10 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The R eff , which was defined as the number of secondary cases infected by the first case during his or her infectious period, was used to quantify the transmissibility of HFMD (24). The corresponding calculation formula in the SEIAR model is as follows:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Yang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Front. Med.

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Background: As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD.Methods: Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established. Spearman rank correlation was used to calculate the correlation between the various meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD. The effective reproduction number (Reff) of HFMD was used as an intermediate variable to further quantify the dynamic relationship between the average temperature and Reff.Results: A total of 43,659 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen from 2014 to 2018. There was a significantly positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence of HFMD (r = 0.596, p < 0.001), and a significantly negative correlation between the average air pressure and the incidence of HFMD (r = −0.511, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between the average wind velocity (r = 0.045, p > 0.05) or amount of precipitation (r = 0.043, p > 0.05) and incidence. There was a temperature threshold for HFMD's transmissibility. Owing to the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD in Xiamen, the temperature threshold of HFMD's transmissibility was 13.4–18.4°C and 14.5–29.3°C in spring and summer and in autumn and winter, respectively.Conclusions: HFMD's transmissibility may be affected by the average temperature; the temperature threshold range of transmissibility in autumn and winter is slightly wider than that in spring and summer. Based on our findings, we suggest that the relevant epidemic prevention departments should pay close attention to temperature changes in Xiamen to formulate timely prevention strategies before the arrival of the high-risk period.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Yang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Front. Med.

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“…Water/food transmission may still play a significant role in transmission events that are often further propagated by person-to-person transmission [1]. Combining with our previous model studies [18,19], the transmission route from water/food-to-person of shigellosis had already been cutting off. Therefore, we only considered the person-to-person transmission.…”

Section: Estimation Of Parametersmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…The recent reduction in shigellosis incidence is related to improvements of the water and sanitation infrastructure [ 12 ]. According to several studies [ 1 , 18 , 19 ], the transmission route of shigellosis has shifted from water/food-to-person to person-to-person spread. Therefore, it has become important to explore the transmissibility in different population groups, defined by factors such as sex, age, and occupation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another study applied the Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered–Water/Food (SEIARW) model to discuss features of a shigellosis outbreak in a school, but did not explore age-specific transmission [ 17 ]. Furthermore, several studies have found that the water/food-to-person route does not account for shigellosis transmission [ 1 , 18 , 19 ]. Therefore, we simplified the SEIARW model and built an age-specific Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model to explore the characteristics of interpersonal transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China

et al. 2021

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Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance data maintained by Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2005 to 2017. The individuals were divided into four age groups (≤ 5 years, 6–24 years, 25–59 years, and ≥ 60 years). The effective reproduction number (Reff), including infectivity (RI) and susceptibility (RS) was calculated to assess the transmissibility of different age groups. From 2005 to 2017, 130,768 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model fitted well with the reported data (P < 0.001). The highest transmissibility (Reff) was from ≤ 5 years to the 25–59 years (mean: 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34–1.17), followed by from the 6–24 years to the 25–59 years (mean: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.35–1.02), from the ≥ 60 years to the 25–59 years (mean: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.29–0.86), and from the 25–59 years to 25–59 years (mean: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.21–0.78). The highest infectivity was in ≤ 5 years (RI = 1.71), and was most commonly transmitted to the 25–59 years (45.11%). The highest susceptibility was in the 25–59 years (RS = 2.51), and their most common source was the ≤ 5 years (30.15%). Furthermore, “knock out” simulation predicted the greatest reduction in the number of cases occurred by when cutting off transmission routes among ≤ 5 years and from 25–59 years to ≤ 5 years. Transmission in ≤ 5 years occurred mainly within the group, but infections were most commonly introduced by individuals in the 25–59 years. Infectivity was highest in the ≤ 5 years and susceptibility was highest in the 25–59 years. Interventions to stop transmission should be directed at these age groups.

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“…Cases were reported from doctors in clinics or hospitals in Hubei province and were identified following the case definitions with three categories: 1) Suspected cases; 2) Clinically diagnosed cases; 3) Confirmed cases, which were based on the “Diagnostic criteria for bacterial and amoebic dysentery (WS287-2008)” announced by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. The detailed definitions of the three categories above can be consulted from existing literature [ 23 ]. In this study, we included clinically diagnosed cases and confirmed cases for the analysis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Rui

Chen

et al. 2020

BMC Infect Dis

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Background The transmission features and the feasibility of containing shigellosis remain unclear among a population-based study in China. Methods A population–based Susceptible – Exposed – Infectious / Asymptomatic – Recovered (SEIAR) model was built including decreasing the infectious period (DIP) or isolation of shigellosis cases. We analyzed the distribution of the reported shigellosis cases in Hubei Province, China from January 2005 to December 2017, and divided the time series into several stages according to the heterogeneity of reported incidence during the period. In each stage, an epidemic season was selected for the modelling and assessing the effectiveness of DIP and case isolation. Results A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The median of R eff was 1.13 (range: 0.86–1.21), 1.10 (range: 0.91–1.13), 1.09 (range: 0.92–1.92), and 1.03 (range: 0.94–1.22) in 2005–2006 season, 2010–2011 season, 2013–2014 season, and 2016–2017 season, respectively. The reported incidence decreased significantly (trend χ 2 = 8260.41, P < 0.001) among four stages. The incidence of shigellosis decreased sharply when DIP implemented in three scenarios ( γ = 0.1, 0.1429, 0.3333) and when proportion of case isolation increased. Conclusions Year heterogeneity of reported shigellosis incidence exists in Hubei Province. It is feasible to contain the transmission by implementing DIP and case isolation.

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Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 – 2017

Cited by 10 publications

References 35 publications

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China

Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

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