Estimating Rapidity of Change in Complex Urban Systems: A Multidimensional, Local‐Scale Approach

Abstract

This study illustrates an exploratory approach based on a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) to estimate rapidity of change in complex urban systems, based on “fast” and “slow” variables. The proposed methodology was applied to 18 socioeconomic indicators of long‐term (1960–2010) transformations in 115 municipalities of Athens’ metropolitan area (Greece), including demography, land‐use/planning, and urban form and functions. Athens was regarded as a dynamic urban area with diversified structures and functions at the local scale, expanding through a self‐organized pattern rather than a centralized planning strategy. Athens’ urban system was described using nine supplementary (topographic and territorial) variables and 30 independent indicators assessing the local context in recent times. Exploratory data analysis found an increasing connectedness and redundancy among socioeconomic indicators during the phase of largest urban expansion (1960–1990). Only the rate of population growth was classified as a “fast” variable for all five decades investigated. The overall rapidity of change was higher in 1960–1970, 1980–1990, and 2000–2010, decades that coincided with specific phases of urban expansion driven by migration inflow, second‐home suburbanization, and Olympic games, respectively. Rapidity of change was high for functional indicators during all five decades studied, while demography indicators changed more rapidly in the first three decades and land‐use/planning indicators in the last two decades. Rapidity of change was highest in peri‐urban municipalities with a highly diversified economic structure dominated by industry. Our methodology provides a comprehensive overview of the transformations of a complex urban system, quantifying low‐level indicators that are rarely assessed in the mainstream literature on urban studies. These results may contribute to design policies addressing complexity and promoting resilience in expanding metropolitan areas.

Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

“…At the same time, migration can aggravate labour market imbalances in the short term, amplifying temporarily the geographical dispersion of unskilled workers' wages (Devillanova, 2004). The extent of regional variation in population dynamics revealed by our analysis and earlier reports (Fuguitt & Beale, 1996) indicates how differences in physiography, settlements, and economy are reflected in demographic dynamics (Salvati & Serra, 2016), which are obscured when larger regional groupings (or national-scale data) are used.…”

Urban growth, population, and recession: Unveiling multiple spatial patterns of demographic indicators in a Mediterranean City

“…Trends over time in some indicators guided by the second demographic transition (e.g., fertility rates) have rarely been associated with heterogeneous spatial dynamics that depend on suburbanisation (Kabisch & Haase, ) and, more recently, on the short‐term impact of the economic crisis. With this perspective in mind, empirical evidence from our study indicates a particularly complex territorial patchwork that can be better interpreted using a multivariate exploratory spatial analysis (Carlucci et al, ), because different analysis' dimensions are usually identified with the use of multidimensional techniques (Salvati & Serra, ). The analysis carried out in the present study discriminates population dynamics along the urban–rural gradient from demographic processes oriented along a more subtle social gradient on the basis of territorial gaps in disposable income, class segregation, and concentration of economic activities, corresponding to the east–west axis in Athens.…”

“…dimensions are usually identified with the use of multidimensional techniques (Salvati & Serra, 2016). The analysis carried out in the present study discriminates population dynamics along the urban-rural gradient from demographic processes oriented along a more subtle social gradient on the basis of territorial gaps in disposable income, class segregation, and concentration of economic activities, corresponding to the east-west axis in Athens.…”

“…Since the early 1990s, the city has aimed to attract public and private investment to sustain suburban growth (Delladetsima, ). The 2004 Olympics positively influenced the city's economic background (Salvati & Serra, ) by attracting investment and promoting development of new infrastructure, though with a negative impact on the public debt of Greece (Chorianopoulos et al, ). The 2007 economic crisis reduced building activity by more than 50% over 5 years and shaped urban growth towards discontinuous and mainly dispersed morphologies (Rontos et al, ).…”

Rural Tourism: Crossroads Between Nature, Socio-Ecological Decoupling and Urban Sprawl

“…We consider the 30 municipalities of the valley as units of analysis because they constitute the smallest unit of governance and management in the Madrid region and also the most detailed level at which LULC and socio-economic census data are available [24], [25]. The data matrices analysed, (m x d L ) and (m x d S ), contained the set of municipalities described over time by means of 46 LULC and 27 socioeconomic descriptors, respectively.…”