Estimating the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall on Malaria Incidence in Ghana from 2012 to 2017

Oheneba-Dornyo, Theresa Valerie; Amuzu, Setor; Maccagnan, Anna; Taylor, Timothy J.

doi:10.1007/s10666-022-09817-6

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Te correlation and multiple regression analyses results show that the number of confrmed cases of malaria in children below fve years increases with an increase in the number of tested cases and average monthly rainfall amounts. Te positive correlation between rainfall and the number of confrmed malaria cases in children is similar to the fndings of Oheneba-Dornyo et al [50] in malaria prevalence in which the Ghanaian population is positively associated with rainfall. However, high amount of rainfall is destructive to breeding sites of mosquitoes which may lead to reduced mosquito populations and subsequent reduction in malaria infections.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Confirmed Malaria Cases in Children under Five Years: The Influence of Suspected Cases, Tested Cases, and Climatic Conditions

Tawiah,

Asampana Asosega,

Ansah

et al. 2023

Health & Social Care in the Community

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Tropical and potentially fatal malaria is brought on by the parasite Plasmodium spp which spreads through infected female anopheles mosquitoes within the human populations. In Ghana, malaria is endemic and perennial, with distinct seasonal fluctuations in the northern part. Children aged below five years are among the population most vulnerable to malaria in Ghana. This study’s goal is to establish how suspected malaria cases, tested malaria cases, and climatic conditions impact confirmed malaria cases in children under five years in the Sunyani Municipality, Bono Region, Ghana. The dependent variable, monthly number of confirmed cases of malaria in children under five years, was modelled with the independent variables, monthly number of tested cases of malaria in children under five years, mean monthly relative humidity, mean monthly rainfall, and mean monthly temperature, in the Sunyani Municipality. We employed multiple linear regression after data transformation, exploratory data analysis, and correlation analysis. Results show that tested malaria cases and climatic factors significantly influence confirmed malaria cases in children under 5 years. About 41.8% of variations in confirmed malaria cases among children under 5 years is attributed to climatic factors and the number of tested cases. Moreover, results show that increase in tested cases and rainfall leads to more confirmed malaria cases among children under 5 years, while increase in temperature reduces malaria infections. To reduce the incidence of malaria in children under five years, the government and its stakeholders should encourage parent to let their children sleep in treated mosquito nets, distil stagnant waters during raining seasons, spray bushes with antimosquito insecticides, and destroy all breeding grounds of mosquitoes at all times. We proposed that all malaria cases should be laboratory tested and properly confirmed.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Confirmed Malaria Cases in Children under Five Years: The Influence of Suspected Cases, Tested Cases, and Climatic Conditions

Tawiah,

Asampana Asosega,

Ansah

et al. 2023

Health & Social Care in the Community

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“…In line with improved conditions for mosquito habitat, rainfall had a positive relationship with P. falciparum seropositivity for all models except for one. This positive relationship has also been noted in multiple malaria studies [ 45 , 46 ]. Air temperature was found to have a consistently negative association with seropositivity.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Geospatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum serological indicators: school versus community sampling in a low-transmission malaria setting

Jaramillo-Underwood,

Herman,

Jean

et al. 2024

BMC Med

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Background Due to low numbers of active infections and persons presenting to health facilities for malaria treatment, case-based surveillance is inefficient for understanding the remaining disease burden in low malaria transmission settings. Serological data through the detection of IgG antibodies from previous malaria parasite exposure can fill this gap by providing a nuanced picture of where sustained transmission remains. Study enrollment at sites of gathering provides a potential approach to spatially estimate malaria exposure and could preclude the need for more intensive community-based sampling. Methods This study compared spatial estimates of malaria exposure from cross-sectional school- and community-based sampling in Haiti. A total of 52,405 blood samples were collected from 2012 to 2017. Multiplex bead assays (MBAs) tested IgG against P. falciparum liver stage antigen-1 (LSA-1), apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1), and merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1). Predictive geospatial models of seropositivity adjusted for environmental covariates, and results were compared using correlations by coordinate points and communes across Haiti. Results Consistent directional associations were observed between seroprevalence and environmental covariates for elevation (negative), air temperature (negative), and travel time to urban centers (positive). Spearman’s rank correlation for predicted seroprevalence at coordinate points was lowest for LSA-1 (ρ = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.09–0.11), but improved for AMA1 (ρ = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.35–0.37) and MSP1 (ρ = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.47–0.49). Conclusions In settings approaching P. falciparum elimination, case-based prevalence data does not provide a resolution of ongoing malaria transmission in the population. Immunogenic antigen targets (e.g., AMA1, MSP1) that give higher population rates of seropositivity provide moderate correlation to gold standard community sampling designs and are a feasible approach to discern foci of residual P. falciparum transmission in an area.

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“…Lunde et al [ 25 ] examined six different survival models, but again did not address the issue of variability [ 26 ]. Other field-based modelling studies, that do account for daily variability, have shown similar effects of temperature on malaria incidence [ 27 – 30 ]. Interestingly, for the dry season model, the data indicate that temperature does not have a significant effect.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Impact of aerial humidity on seasonal malaria: an ecological study in Zambia

Duque¹,

Matoba

Sing’anga

et al. 2022

Malar J

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Background Seasonal patterns of malaria cases in many parts of Africa are generally associated with rainfall, yet in the dry seasons, malaria transmission declines but does not always cease. It is important to understand what conditions support these periodic cases. Aerial moisture is thought to be important for mosquito survival and ability to forage, but its role during the dry seasons has not been well studied. During the dry season aerial moisture is minimal, but intermittent periods may arise from the transpiration of peri-domestic trees or from some other sources in the environment. These periods may provide conditions to sustain pockets of mosquitoes that become active and forage, thereby transmitting malaria. In this work, humidity along with other ecological variables that may impact malaria transmission have been examined. Methods Negative binomial regression models were used to explore the association between peri-domestic tree humidity and local malaria incidence. This was done using sensitive temperature and humidity loggers in the rural Southern Province of Zambia over three consecutive years. Additional variables including rainfall, temperature and elevation were also explored. Results A negative binomial model with no lag was found to best fit the malaria cases for the full year in the evaluated sites of the Southern Province of Zambia. Local tree and granary night-time humidity and temperature were found to be associated with local health centre-reported incidence of malaria, while rainfall and elevation did not significantly contribute to this model. A no lag and one week lag model for the dry season alone also showed a significant effect of humidity, but not temperature, elevation, or rainfall. Conclusion The study has shown that throughout the dry season, periodic conditions of sustained humidity occur that may permit foraging by resting mosquitoes, and these periods are associated with increased incidence of malaria cases. These results shed a light on conditions that impact the survival of the common malaria vector species, Anopheles arabiensis, in arid seasons and suggests how they emerge to forage when conditions permit.

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Estimating the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall on Malaria Incidence in Ghana from 2012 to 2017

Cited by 11 publications

References 41 publications

Confirmed Malaria Cases in Children under Five Years: The Influence of Suspected Cases, Tested Cases, and Climatic Conditions

Confirmed Malaria Cases in Children under Five Years: The Influence of Suspected Cases, Tested Cases, and Climatic Conditions

Geospatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum serological indicators: school versus community sampling in a low-transmission malaria setting

Impact of aerial humidity on seasonal malaria: an ecological study in Zambia

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