Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination

Ke, Ruian; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Sanche, Steven; Hengartner, Nick

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110621

Cited by 123 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Even so, high seroprevalence levels may reduce the circulation of the virus due to the higher proportion of non-susceptible individuals. Seroprevalence in Spain is far from reaching the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 (~82.5%), using the mathematical formula 1–1/R0 and assuming an R0 estimate of 5.7 [ 72 , 73 ]. The herd immunity threshold would mean that the incidence of infection will begin to decline once the proportion of individuals with acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population exceeds 82.5%.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

López-Mendoza

Montañés

Moliner-Lahoz

2021

IJERPH

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Spain experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in autumn 2020, which has been approached with different measures by regional authorities. We analyze the presence of convergence in the cumulative incidence for 14 days (CI14) in provinces and self-governing cities. The Phillips–Sul methodology was used to study the grouping of behavior between provinces, and an ordered logit model was estimated to understand the forces that drive creating the different convergence clubs. We reject the presence of a single pattern of behavior in the evolution of the CI14 across territories. Four statistically different convergence clubs and an additional province (Madrid) with divergent behavior are observed. Provinces with developed agricultural and industrial economic sectors, high mobility, and a high proportion of Central and South American immigrants had the highest level of CI14. We show that the transmission of the virus is not homogeneous in the Spanish national territory. Our results are helpful for identifying differences in determinants that could explain the pandemic’s evolution and for formulating hypotheses about the effectiveness of implemented measures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

López-Mendoza

Montañés

Moliner-Lahoz

2021

IJERPH

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“…6e8 However, the SAR and estimated R 0 were much lower than those of other countries estimated in a previous study (Mean R 0 is 2.5 in Wuhan, China, 5.9 in the United States of America, 3.9 in the United Kingdom, and 4.6 in Italy). 9 This observation suggested that despite the presence of SSEs in Taiwan, the impact of SSEs was mitigated significantly by advanced deployment prevention strategies. Contrariwise, intra-school transmission played an essential role in the explosive community outbreak.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Features and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events in Taiwan: Implications for effective and sustainable community-centered control

Chen¹,

Yang²,

Li³

et al. 2021

Pediatrics & Neonatology

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“…We found 12.8% (95% CI: 11.9 -13.7%) reinfection within one year, and the median reinfection time was 5.1 years (95% CI: 4.7 -5.5 years). It was possible to match the COVID-19 mortality data with the full range of cross-protection strengths between seasonal HCoV and SARS-CoV-2, but the estimated R 0,C19 s were outside of a realistic range for very high values of cross protection, for example, a recent multi-setting study estimating the R 0,C19 to be between 3.6 and 7.3 29 . Cross-protection from seasonal HCoVs to SARS-CoV-2 did not fully explain the apparent reduced susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 observed during the first wave in the UK 17,18,20,21,28 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Waterlow

Leeuwen

Davies

et al. 2021

Preprint

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We hypothesised that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the pre-pandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 years of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.3 years (95%CI 6.8 - 7.9) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

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Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vaccination

Abstract: Graphical abstract

Cited by 123 publications

References 53 publications

Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

Features and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events in Taiwan: Implications for effective and sustainable community-centered control

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

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