Estimation of the lifespan of agricultural tractor using a diffusion model at the aggregate level

Abstract

R. Muñoz, and J. Llanos. 2012. Estimation of the lifespan of agricultural tractor using a diffusion model at the aggregate level. Cien. Inv. Agr. 39(3): 557-562. The adoption of agricultural tractors by farms has resulted in different combinations, relationships and established ways of production of localities, regions and countries. The dynamics of the tractorization process are defined by the balance of the units that enter the fleet and those that are removed at the end of their useful life. This study uses a diffusion pattern and aggregated adoption of the agricultural tractor, the parameters of which were determined using a nonlinear estimation procedure and country-level data for Chile. Using the predictive power of the model, a longitudinal series of tractor fleets was estimated, and then the balance was calculated considering the units that were discharged. To more accurately determine the average lifespan of a tractor, successive iterations were performed to reduce differences with respect to a control variable for the number of tractors registered. The estimated average lifespan for agricultural tractors at the aggregate level is 22 years. This type of estimation procedure can be used not only for descriptive purposes, as in this case, but also for predictive purposes.

Estimates to determining the agricultural tractor fleet in Mexico

“…According to Muñoz et al (2011), the number of tractors leaving the park (obsolete tractors) can be estimated knowing the average useful life of the tractor, but the difficulty in obtaining this variable lies in the fact that different final figures will be obtained depending on the selected useful life. Muñoz et al (2012) estimated that the estimated average useful life for an agricultural tractor at the aggregate level is 22 years, depending on whether the tractor comes from a certain group of countries.…”

“…The tractor has been an icon of technological change in agriculture, its adoption within the farm has meant various combinations, relationships and established forms of production in a locality, region and country. The dynamics of the tractorization process is defined by the balance given by the units that enter the fleet and by those that are withdrawn due to the end of their useful life (Muñoz et al, 2012).…”

Optimal Machine Stopping Time and Ordering Cycle for Parts to Minimize the Total Cost of a Supply Chain

“…In the area of lifespan estimation, Masahiro et al (2010) reviewed and categorized different types of lifespan distribution and methodologies for estimating the lifespan distribution of commodities and also examined the differences in actual lifespan between variant types of distribution, definition and methodology by comparing reported data [11]. To estimate the lifespan of agricultural tractor which can be quite useful for the market predictions, Munoz and Llanos (2012) established a diffusion aggregate adoption model by using a nonlinear estimation procedure [12]. Later Firoozi and Ariafar (2017) developed a model for network design of perishable items and proposed a Lagrangian relaxation-based heuristic algorithm to solve the model [13].…”