Estimation of the probability of reinfection with COVID-19 coronavirus by the SEIRUS model

Abstract

With sensitivity of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test used to detect the presence of the virus in the human host, the global health community has been able to record a great number of recovered population. Therefore, in a bid to answer a burning question of reinfection in the recovered class, the model equations which exhibits the disease-free equilibrium ( ) state for COVID-19 coronavirus was developed in this study and was discovered to both exist as well as satisfy the criteria for a locally or globally asymptotic stability with a basic reproductive number 0 = 0 for and endemic situation. Hence, there is a chance of no secondary reinfections from the recovered population as the rate of incidence of the recovered population vanishes, that is, = 0.Furthermore, numerical simulations were carried to complement the analytical results in investigating the effect of the implementation of quarantine and observatory procedures has on the projection of the further spread of the virus globally. Result shows that the proportion of infected population in the absence of curative vaccination will continue to grow globally meanwhile the recovery rate will continue slowly which therefore means that the ratio of infection to recovery rate will determine the death rate that is recorded globally and most significant for this study is the rate of reinfection by the recovered population which will decline to zero over time as the virus is cleared clinically from the system of the recovered class.

RLIM: a recursive and latent infection model for the prediction of US COVID-19 infections and turning points

“…Additionally, it requires no disease control—any political or clinical intervention is forbidden, and such transmission behavior rarely appears. However, based on these theoretical assumptions, many revised models, such as SEIR [ 19 ], SEIRUS [ 16 ], mechanic-statistic SEIR [ 17 ], and deep learning SEIR [ 12 ], have been proposed and developed by researchers adopting different epidemic transmission characteristics and human interventions. A description of these models can be found in Hethcote’s review [ 10 ].…”

“…A recent scientific report from Christian Gaebler et al [ 9 ] proves that the humeral memory response to COVID-19 will last between 1.3 and 6.3 months after infection without vaccine support. Okhuese [ 16 ] attempted to estimate the probability of COVID-19 reinfection by searching the equilibrium state of the SEIRUS model. In his simulation report, after 12 days, the rate of recovery and rate of infection will meet and reach an equilibrium state.…”

RLIM: A Recursive and Latent Infection Model for COVID-19 Prediction and Turning Point in United States

“…Such transmission behavior rarely appears. However, based on its theoretical assumptions, many revised models, such as SEIR [20], SEIRUS [14], mechanic-statistic SEIR [18], and deep learning SEIR [19], adopted different epidemic transmission characteristics and human interventions, were proposed and developed by researchers. The description of these models can be found in Hethcotes review [2].…”

“…A recent scientific report from Christian Gaebler et al [16] also proves that the humoral memory response to COVID-19 will last between 1.3 and 6.3 months after infection without vaccine support. Victor Alexander Okhuese [14] attempted to estimate the probability of COVID-19 reinfections by searching the equilibrium state of SEIRUS model. In his simulation report, after 12 days the rate of recovery and rate of infection will meet and reach an equilibrium state.…”

COVID-19: Is reinfection possible?

“…Public health data have revealed certain rare cases of reinfection, however, a rare type of coronavirus is suspected as the cause. Another important factor to consider is the limitation of the variability of the data available when the research was developed (Okhuese, 2020[ 26 ]). This study demonstrates the importance of mathematical models to assist strategic decisions in health care, the adoption of public policies that track infected/cured patients, and of measures to either restrict or relax social isolation practices.…”