Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Cochrane, Mark A.; Moran, Christopher J.; Wimberly, Michael C.; Baer, Adam D.; Finney, Mark A.; Beckendorf, K. L.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Zhu, Zhiliang

doi:10.1071/wf11079

Cited by 125 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…2013). Multiple simulations were run (10 simulations at 10 m resolution) to analyze the agreement between observed and simulated perimeters, since the predicted burned area changes from simulation to simulation due to the stochastic behavior caused by spot fires in any run (Cochrane et al 2012), although all input data and parameters were kept constant (Fig. 5).…”

Section: Wildfire Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

2015

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Wildfires are a growing threat to socioeconomic and natural resources in the wildland-rural-urban intermix in central Navarra (Spain), where recent fastspreading and spotting short fire events have overwhelmed suppression capabilities. A fire simulation modeling approach based on the minimum travel time algorithm was used to analyze the wildfire exposure of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) in a 28,000 ha area. We replicated 30,000 fires at fine resolution (20 m), based on wildfire season and recent fire weather and moisture conditions, historical ignition patterns and spatially explicit canopy fuels derived from low-density airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR). Detailed maps of simulated fire likelihood, fire intensity and fire size were used to assess spatial patterns of HVRA exposure to fire and to analyze large fire initiation and spread through source-sink ratio and fire potential index. Crown fire activity was estimated and used to identify potential spotting-emission hazardous stands. The results revealed considerable variation in fire risk causative factors among and within HVRAs. Exposure levels across HVRAs were mainly related to the combined effects of anthropic ignition locations, fuels, topography and weather conditions. We discuss the potential of fire management strategies such as prioritizing mitigation treatment and fire ignition prevention monitoring, informed by fine-scale geospatial quantitative risk assessment outcomes.

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Section: Wildfire Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

2015

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“…As highlighted by the current and other previous works (Stratton, 2009;Cochrane et al, 2012), FARSITE results in an accurate and reliable single fire event simulator able to replicate observed wildfires at high resolution (20 m or finer resolutions). However, although FARSITE was also applied at landscape scale for several fire modeling and fire likelihood analysis (Bar Massada et al, 2011), other simulators like FlamMap and its command line Randig (also based on Rothermel's fire spread model; Finney et al, 2006) present some advantages with respect to FARSITE when working at large scales (thousands of hectares and square kilometers) and with a huge number of fire ignitions (several thousands for fire modeling) (Ager et al, 2007.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…The simulator, which is a semi-empirical model based on Rothermel's (1972) surface fire spread model, simulates fire growth using Huygens's principle wave propagation and fire intensity using Byram's (1959) equation. FARSITE has been widely calibrated in the US and employed not only to generate spatial maps of fire spread and behavior (Finney and Ryan, 1995;Finney, 1998) but also to evaluate the effects of different silvicultural prescriptions and fuel treatment options on reducing fire hazard (Stephens, 1998;Finney, 2001;Stratton, 2004;LaCroix et al, 2006;Ryu et al, 2007;Schmidt et al, 2008;Cochrane et al, 2012). The use of FAR-SITE simulator on areas different from those ones where the model was originally developed requires a local calibration and validation (Arca et al, 2007) using observed wildfire data and is the primary step to applying the simulator at larger scales (Ager et al, 2007;Stratton, 2006;Salis et al, 2013).…”

Section: R Jahdi Et Al: Calibration Of Farsite Simulator In Northermentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration of FARSITE simulator in northern Iranian forests

Jahdi

Salis

Darvishsefat

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Wildfire simulators based on empirical or physical models need to be locally calibrated and validated when used under conditions that differ from those where the simulators were originally developed. This study aims to calibrate the FARSITE fire spread model considering a set of recent wildfires that occurred in northern Iranian forests. Sitespecific fuel models in the study areas were selected by sampling the main natural vegetation type complexes and assigning standard fuel models. Overall, simulated fires presented reliable outputs that accurately replicated the observed fire perimeters and behavior. Standard fuel models of Scott and Burgan (2005) afforded better accuracy in the simulated fire perimeters than the standard fuel models of Anderson (1982). The best match between observed and modeled burned areas was observed on herbaceous fuel models. Fire modeling showed a high potential for estimating spatial variability in fire spread and behavior in the study areas. This work represents a first step in the application of fire spread modeling in northern Iran for wildfire risk monitoring and management.

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“…Numerous recent fires in the western U.S. have been managed in part or in whole for ecological benefit (henceforth "restoration fires"), including over 12 fires in 2017 totaling more than 60,000 ha of burned area (Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management, personal communication). Both modeling and empirical studies support these actions by showing that wild and prescribed fires can limit growth and lower severity of future fires and losses (Collins et al 2009, Arkle et al 2012, North et al 2012, Houtman et al 2013, Hoff et al 2014, Parks et al 2014, 2015a, Price et al 2015 and facilitate suppression efforts (Moghaddas and Craggs 2007, Syphard et al 2011b, Cochrane et al 2012, Thompson et al 2016. However, despite these and other studies, including landscape simulation research in which alternative fire management studies are simulated over time Mladenoff 2007, Spies et al 2014), research is nonexistent on how landscape fire regimes and suppression budgets might change following long-term changes in fire policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of accelerated wildfire on future fire regimes and implications for the United States federal fire policy

Ager¹,

Barros²,

Preisler³

et al. 2017

E&S

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. 2017. Effects of accelerated wildfire on future fire regimes and implications for the United States federal fire policy. Ecology and Society 22 (4) ABSTRACT. Wildland fire suppression practices in the western United States are being widely scrutinized by policymakers and scientists as costs escalate and large fires increasingly affect social and ecological values. One potential solution is to change current fire suppression tactics to intentionally increase the area burned under conditions when risks are acceptable to managers and fires can be used to achieve long-term restoration goals in fire adapted forests. We conducted experiments with the Envision landscape model to simulate increased levels of wildfire over a 50-year period on a 1.2 million ha landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon, USA. We hypothesized that at some level of burned area fuels would limit the growth of new fires, and fire effects on the composition and structure of forests would eventually reduce future fire intensity and severity. We found that doubling current rates of wildfire resulted in detectable feedbacks in area burned and fire intensity. Area burned in a given simulation year was reduced about 18% per unit area burned in the prior five years averaged across all scenarios. The reduction in area burned was accompanied by substantially lower fire severity, and vegetation shifted to open forest and grass-shrub conditions at the expense of old growth habitat. Negative fire feedbacks were slightly moderated by longer-term positive feedbacks, in which the effect of prior area burned diminished during the simulation. We discuss trade-offs between managing fuels with wildfire versus prescribed fire and mechanical fuel treatments from a social and policy standpoint. The study provides a useful modeling framework to consider the potential value of fire feedbacks as part of overall land management strategies to build fire resilient landscapes and reduce wildfire risk to communities in the western U.S. The results are also relevant to prior climate-wildfire studies that did not consider fire feedbacks in projections of future wildfire activity.

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Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Cited by 125 publications

References 30 publications

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

Calibration of FARSITE simulator in northern Iranian forests

Effects of accelerated wildfire on future fire regimes and implications for the United States federal fire policy

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