Estimativa de cheias em bacias hidrográficas com base em previsões de precipitação por conjunto

Martins, Cinthia Mara Santos; Silva, Benedito Cláudio da; Pons, Nívea Adriana Dias

doi:10.26848/rbgf.v12.5.p1713-1729

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…A main source of water for the Furnas Hydroelectric Power Plant Reservoir, the Alto Sapucaí river in southern Minas Gerais is also important for locomotion, fishing, irrigation, and hydroelectric energy production (Galvão and Bermann, 2015). However, surrounding municipalities, such as Itajubá, Piranguinho, Santa Rita do Sapucaí, Piranguçu, and Delfin Moreira, recurrently suffer from floods due to their history of uncontrolled development (Martins et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate, according to Köppen's classification, is tropical in altitude (Cwa and Cwe), with hot and humid summers and cold and dry winters and average annual precipitation of 1.600 to 1.865 mm (Aquino et al, 2012). In southern Minas Gerais, December and January have the highest precipitation values of 253 and 245 mm, respectively (Martins et al, 2019), with preferential maximums leeward of Serra da Mantiqueira, which illustrates the orographic performance in the distribution of precipitation (Campos et al, 2016;Ávila et al, 2009). The dominant morphoclimatic domain is the Atlantic Forest, with the seasonal semideciduous forest replaced mainly by pastures and agriculture (Scolforo et al, 2008).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Methodological proposal to remote detection and management of areas that are naturally vulnerable to floods

Servidoni

Ayer²,

Lense

et al. 2023

Earth sci. res. j.

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Floods are the main natural disasters in Brazil, causing loss of life and socioeconomic damage. This work proposes a model for the remote detection of areas that are naturally flood-prone due to the morphometric characteristics of their relief and drainage networks in the Alto Sapucaí River in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The morphometric parameters used were the drainage density, river density, relief ratio, roughness index, maintenance coefficient, form factor and stream surface length. The risk areas had a compactness coefficient of 0.75 and a form factor of 0.56, and both were considered a high risk for floods. The obtained results allowed the identification of a significant predictive equation that suggested a cutoff value of 3.82 for the discriminant function; areas with values under this cutoff were considered naturally more vulnerable to floods occurrences. These areas were corroborated with the emergency maps of the municipalities. The map obtained by the proposed model was compared with the Civil Defense map, and its accuracy, according to the Kappa coefficient, was 0.83, indicating strong similarity between the two maps.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodological proposal to remote detection and management of areas that are naturally vulnerable to floods

Servidoni

Ayer²,

Lense

et al. 2023

Earth sci. res. j.

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show abstract

“…Tais estudos envolvem métodos estatísticos, análises de dados e estudos ambientais. (Martins, Da Silva, Pons, 2019 Com base nisto, o presente estudo buscou dados pluviométricos afim de caracterizar os eventos de chuvas e secas extremas durante um período de 51 anos das sub-bacias hidrográficas do alto e médio Jaguaribe por meio da aplicação do IAC. Como forma de identificar os períodos anuais com chuvas e secas consideravelmente acima do normal e correlacioná-los com variação volumétrica dos açudes Orós e Castanhão pertencentes às subbacias de estudo.…”

Section: Issn:1984-2295unclassified

A variabilidade da precipitação nas sub-bacias do Alto e do Médio Jaguaribe e seu efeito sob os açudes Castanhão e Orós, localizados no estado do Ceará

Rocha

Almeida²

2021

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Os grandes períodos de seca e as fortes chuvas são características da variabilidade pluviométrica do semiárido do estado do Ceará e para melhor caracterizar tais acontecimentos existem diversos métodos. Dentre eles, o Índice de Anomalia de Chuvas (IAC) que foi aplicado neste trabalho e teve como base a série histórica publicada no portal HidroWeb da Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) durante o período de 1969 a 2019. O enfoque do estudo se deu nas sub-bacias do Alto e Médio Jaguaribe, onde se localizam, respectivamente, os açudes Orós e Castanhão. Com isto, calculou-se o IAC para sete postos pluviométricos identificando os anos secos e chuvosos e os classificando de acordo com a intensidade. Posteriormente, realizou-se através do coeficiente de correlação de Pearson a correlação entre a variação da precipitação e dos níveis volumétricos dos açudes. Conclui-se que houve uma proporção entre a quantidade de anos secos e chuvosos na região, pois, em ambas bacias foram identificados 27 anos secos e 24 anos úmidos. O menor IAC encontrado foi de -4,55 em 1993 na região do Médio Jaguaribe e o maior foi de 6,77 em 1985 no Alto Jaguaribe. Observou-se também que a correlação se mostrou forte obtendo valores de 0,74 para o açude Castanhão e de 0,72 no Orós, ou seja, o fator precipitação influencia diretamente no aporte hídrico de açudes e por isto, é tão crucial o entendimento de séries históricas e de acontecimentos climáticos nas regiões do Nordeste brasileiro. Study of pluviometric variability in cearense semiarid and the efect on Orós and Castanhão daws A B S T R A C TThe large dry and heavy rains periods are characteristics of the rainfall variance on the semiarid region in the State of Ceará and there are several methods to characterize better such events. Among them, the Rains Anomaly Index (RAI) was applied in this work based on the historical series extracted from ANA between the periods of 1969 to 2019. The focus of the study was the region of the Upper Jaguaribe and Middle Jaguaribe basins, where the Orós and Castanhão dams are located, respectively. Thus, the RAI was calculated for 7 pluviometric stations identifying the dry and humid years and classifying them according to the intensity, afterward, through the Pearson method, the correlation between the RAI and the variation of the volumetric levels of the dams was performed. Therefore, it’s possible to conclude that was a proportion between the number of dried and humid years in the region, for as much in both basins were identified 27 dry and 24 humid years. It was also observed that the correlation proved to be strong, obtaining values of 0.74 for the Castanhão reservoir and 0.72 in Orós, that is, the precipitation factor directly influences the water supply of dams and, therefore, the understanding of series and climatic events is so crucial in the Northeast regions of Brazil.Keywords: Weather Events. Northeast brazilian. RAI.

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Prognosis of topography changes in the impact of floods (Itajubá/MG – Brazil)

Marciano,

Barbosa,

Silva

et al. 2024

PESQUI GEOCIENC

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With increasing urbanization, some decision-makers often take inappropriate actions that affect the environment due to a lack of technical knowledge or personal interests. In the case of areas with recurrent flooding, irregular occupation can cause a series of environmental and economic problems. The Industrial District of the municipality of Itajubá-MG has been experiencing accelerated occupation and noticeable morphometric changes. To predict the impact of these changes in land use and occupation, this study seeks to establish flood diagnosis between 2005 and 2021, and project a future scenario until the year 2030. This article intends to assess the impacts caused by floods. The HEC-RAS software was utilized to simulate five flood propagations under six different occupation scenarios. Simulations were analyzed at eight control sites throughout the study area. The results indicate that, over the years, as a result of increasing occupation in this area, flood damming is expected to occur in the region upstream of the landfills. However, due to the proportionality of the area, these damming heights are considered irrelevant, as they do not exacerbate the damage caused by floods. In some cases, they even lead to a reduction in the flooded area in the Industrial District.

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Estimativa de cheias em bacias hidrográficas com base em previsões de precipitação por conjunto

Cited by 4 publications

References 14 publications

Methodological proposal to remote detection and management of areas that are naturally vulnerable to floods

Methodological proposal to remote detection and management of areas that are naturally vulnerable to floods

A variabilidade da precipitação nas sub-bacias do Alto e do Médio Jaguaribe e seu efeito sob os açudes Castanhão e Orós, localizados no estado do Ceará

Prognosis of topography changes in the impact of floods (Itajubá/MG – Brazil)

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