Ethnic Change, Concern over Immigration, and Approval of State Government

Abstract

The popularity and approval of a Governor among their state citizenry is a central form of political capital that animates the informal power key to their legislative success and bolsters their prospects for reelection. Within the extant literature exploring the sources of approval of state executives, the lion"s share of the work focuses on the deleterious effects on approval of a poorly performing national and state economy. In the present article, we rely upon the same logic underlying the economic centered research-namely, that unhappy citizens blame governors and state governments for their discontent-but focus on the impact on approval of an entirely separate and relatively unexplored domain of life in a state: ethno-demographics. This article advances the hypothesis that citizen discontent over drastic ethnic change in their local environment is politicized as concern over immigration, which in turn serves as a concrete political issue through which personal discontent over increased ethnic diversity is translated into lower approval of state government. This hypothesis is tested within the context of the state of California using pooled statewide survey data. Our analyses demonstrate that growth in the Hispanic population within a respondent"s county of residence significantly increases concern over immigration within the state, and that concern over immigration significantly decreases approval of state government across the board, including the Governor, the state legislature, and one"s local state representatives.

Relative Unemployment, Political Information, and the Job Approval Ratings of State Governors and Legislatures

“…In part because of the above reasons, state unemployment has dominated the research on accountability in the states (Ferguson 2014; Newman and Johnson 2012). But factors besides state unemployment have also been found to affect voters’ assessment of their state policy makers.…”

“…When employing individual-level data, it also may be useful to include voter political predispositions and attitudes, such as party identification. Recent studies also have expanded the factors that can affect approval and elections to issues besides economics and unemployment, such as immigration (Newman and Johnson 2012) and Medicaid (Fording and Patton 2019).…”

“…In a federal system this means that state policy makers should be held accountable for state but not national unemployment. Consistent with the functional accountability perspective, state unemployment has dominated research on accountability in the states (Ferguson 2014; Newman and Johnson 2012). But debate exists over whether voters hold state policy makers accountable for state unemployment.…”

Anti-Immigrant Anxieties in State Policy: The Great Recession and Punitive Immigration Policy in the American States, 2005–2012

“…Sanchez (1997, 1013) points to opportunistic political elites, who take “full advantage of America’s long-standing fears of immigrants and foreigners when such a strategy can bring success at the polls.” In particular, he references California’s Governor Pete Wilson and President Herbert Hoover as examples. Likewise, in their examination of white respondents in nine statewide California surveys from 2006 to 2010, Newman and Johnson (2012) find that an increase in local Hispanic population and negative perceptions of the economy are associated with an increase in concern over immigration, and further that these concerns lead to lower approval ratings of state government and preferences for changes in state policy toward immigration. The authors speculate that.…”

“…the passage of restrictive immigration policies and the incorporation of such positions on immigration into political platforms may reflect an attempt by office holders to counteract the deleterious effects of unchecked immigration and ethnic change, or at least the public’s perception of this, on their level of popularity and approval. (Newman and Johnson 2012, 431)…”