Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana

Abstract

While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June–July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.

Attitudes towards the COVID-19 Vaccine and Willingness to Get Vaccinated among Healthcare Workers in French Guiana: The Influence of Geographical Origin

“…The infection attack rate of SARS-CoV2 was, however, one of the highest in France, but the number of hospitalizations and deaths was lower. This may be linked to the youth of the FG population and/or to the 2 month delay with mainland France with improvements in patient care (anticoagulation, steroid and ventilation) [ 26 ].…”

“…Although the combination of strict interventions including curfews and localized lockdowns brought the situation under control relatively quickly [ 26 ], the socio-economic consequences were very significant in this precarious department [ 25 , 27 ]. Indeed, the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by the cessation of many formal and informal activities and a significant increase in food insecurity.…”

Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study

“…However, since age is a key determinant of the severity of infection, our model would have to be rerun for populations with different age pyramids. In particular, for a given doubling time, populations with younger demographics such as French Guiana will have substantially lower ICU needs at the peak [ 4 ]. The probability of ICU admission given hospitalisation and the probability of hospital admission upon infection may vary by country.…”

“…However, given the major economic and societal costs associated with general lockdowns, the decision may be more difficult in scenarios where the number of cases grows slowly in a wide area. In such circumstances, authorities might prefer strengthening control measures without going as far as a general lockdown, for example with extended curfews [ 4 ], hoping this will be sufficient to contain spread at a lower cost for society. However, should these alternative control measures be unsuccessful, a new lockdown could be a last resort.…”

Is Curfew Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Progression? An Evaluation in France Based on Epidemiokinetic Analyses

“…While our analyses were unable to identify the specific curfew-related benefits, the observed limitation in epidemic spread in French Guyana was clearly attributed to its combination with other social interaction-limiting measures, as previously suggested. 7 …”