Evaluating the non-stationarity of Australian annual maximum flood

Ishak, Elias H; Rahman, Ataur; Westra, Seth; Sharma, Ashish; Kuczera, George

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.04.021

Cited by 154 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Pui et al (2011) detected changes in annual maximum flood data of 128 stations in NSW according to multiple climate drivers. Ishak et al (2010Ishak et al ( , 2013 presented trend analysis in annual maxima flood series data from 491 stations in Australia, and suggested much of the observed trend may be associated with the climate modes on annual or decadal timescales. Commonality and differences were found from this study when compared with previous streamflow trend studies across Australia.…”

Section: Evidence For Trends In Hydrological Records Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations

Zhang

Amirthanathan

Bari

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

103

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Abstract. Streamflow variability and trends in Australia were investigated for 222 high-quality stream gauging stations having 30 years or more continuous unregulated streamflow records. Trend analysis identified seasonal, interannual and decadal variability, long-term monotonic trends and step changes in streamflow. Trends were determined for annual total flow, baseflow, seasonal flows, daily maximum flow and three quantiles of daily flow. A distinct pattern of spatial and temporal variation in streamflow was evident across different hydroclimatic regions in Australia. Most of the stations in southeastern Australia spread across New South Wales and Victoria showed a significant decreasing trend in annual streamflow, while increasing trends were retained within the northern part of the continent. No strong evidence of significant trend was observed for stations in the central region of Australia and northern Queensland. The findings from step change analysis demonstrated evidence of changes in hydrologic responses consistent with observed changes in climate over the past decades. For example, in the Murray-Darling Basin, 51 out of 75 stations were identified with step changes of significant reduction in annual streamflow during the middle to late 1990s, when relatively dry years were recorded across the area. Overall, the hydrologic reference stations (HRSs) serve as critically important gauges for streamflow monitoring and changes in long-term water availability inferred from observed datasets. A wealth of freely downloadable hydrologic data is provided at the HRS web portal including annual, seasonal, monthly and daily streamflow data, as well as trend analysis products and relevant site information.

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Section: Evidence For Trends In Hydrological Records Australiamentioning

confidence: 99%

How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations

Zhang

Amirthanathan

Bari

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

103

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“…Em particular, a identificação de tendências em séries de variáveis hidrológicas, entre elas e precipitação, tornou-se notadamente importante dado o interesse crescente por modelos estocásticos focados na predição e preparação da sociedade para os impactos provocados por possíveis eventos extremos ou raros (Paiva e Clarke, 1995;Katz et al, 2002;Khaliq et al, 2006;Milly et al, 2008;Villarini et al, 2009;Gilroy e McCuen, 2012;Ishak et al, 2013). Entretanto, Vogel et al (2013) demonstram algumas preocupações que concernem aos testes para detecção de tendências em tais variáveis, principalmente pelo fato de serem formulados sob a perspectiva dos Testes de Significância da Hipótese Nula -NHST, tradução da terminologia de língua inglesa Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Detecção de Tendências Monotônicas Temporais e Relação com Erros dos Tipos I e II: Estudo de Caso em Séries de Precipitações Diárias Máximas Anuais do Estado do Acre

Moreira

Naghettini

2016

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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ResumoAtualmente, é quase consenso que mudanças climáticas estão acontecendo e, provavelmente, se intensificarão no futuro. Com isso, os testes estatísticos para detecção de tendências em séries de observações de variáveis hidrológicas tornaram-se ferramentas importantes para a construção e melhoramento dos modelos de predição e de planos de preparação da sociedade para os possíveis impactos causados por eventos extremos. Sob este foco, o presente artigo busca discutir uma metodologia proposta recentemente para a detecção de tendências, à luz dos erros do tipo I e II associados a testes de significância estatística, e comparar com o teste não paramétrico de Mann-Kendall, complementado pelo estimador de declive de Sen. Contempla, ainda, um estudo de caso nas três principais séries de precipitações diárias máximas anuais do estado do Acre, Brasil. Os resultados evidenciaram tendência significativamente crescente apenas para a série de observações localizada em Tarauacá, um dos municípios do estado em questão, e que dispõe de uma estação meteorológica de referência. Palavras-chave: detecção de tendências, erros do tipo I e tipo II, séries de precipitações máximas. Detecting Monotonous Time Trends as Related to Type I and Type II Errors: Case Study in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation Series Observed in the State of Acre AbstractClimate changes are taking place and will probably be reinforced in the future. In such a context, statistical tests for detecting trends in time series of hydrologic observations are certainly important tools for building and improving prediction models and societal preparedness plans to deal with possible impacts from extreme events. This paper focuses on discussing a recent method proposed for detecting monotonous trends in time series by accounting for both type I and type II errors, and comparing its results with the conventional Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, as complemented by Sen slope estimator, following application to the three main series of annual maximum daily rainfall observed in the Brazilian state of Acre. The results point out a significant increasing tendency for the series observed at the raingauge of Tarauacá.

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“…Moreover, the variance is constant over time, reflecting no temporal trend in the data. The existence of trends in stream flow series occurs due to anthropogenic causes, e.g., changes in the land use of the basin and/or the gauging outlet, as well as to natural causes resulting from the biogeochemical cycles of the planet, e.g., ENSO (ISHAK et al, 2013).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For these series, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test was applied, as described by Wang et al (2015), in order to verify existence of trends. The null hypothesis of MK test (H 0 ) states there is no trend in the data over the time, since they are samples of n random variables, independent and equally distributed (ISHAK et al, 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological regionalization of maximum stream flows using an approach based on L-moments

Cassalho

Beskow

Vargas

et al. 2017

RBRH

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The proper design of hydraulic structures depends on estimates of maximum stream flows. The scarce stream flow monitoring in Brazil has led to the use of regionalization methods. The main objective of this study was to develop a tool via regional function to estimate maximum stream flows and their corresponding return periods (RP) with the aid of techniques based on the L-moments method, seeking for adequate hydrologic engineering applications and flood risk management. Annual maximum stream flow historical series were adjusted to traditional 2-parameter probability density functions (PDFs) (Normal, 2-parameter Log-Normal, Gumbel, Gamma) and multiparameter PDFs (GEV and Kappa), based on the L-moments method, which were used in the development of the regional function employing the dimensionless curve method. The regional function's predictive capability was determined by cross-validation for different RPs. It can be concluded that the approach based on L-moments was successfully used to adjust the regional function. In addition, the regional function: i) was improved when using the aforementioned multiparameter PDFs and ii) was framed as optimum for RP of up to 100 years and considered useful for practical engineering projects and flood risk management.Keywords: Flood risk management; Statistical hydrology; GEV; Kappa; Mirim-São Gonçalo transboundary basin. RESUMOO dimensionamento adequado de estruturas hidráulicas é dependente das estimativas de vazões máximas. A escassez no monitoramento hidrológico no Brasil tem levado ao uso de métodos de regionalização. O principal objetivo do presente estudo foi desenvolver uma ferramenta via função regional para a estimativa das vazões máximas e seus respectivos tempos de retorno, com o suporte de técnicas baseadas no método dos momentos-L, com vistas a aplicações adequadas da engenharia hidrológica e da gestão de risco de cheias. As séries de vazão máxima diária anual foram ajustadas às funções densidade de probabilidade tradicionais de 2 parâmetros (Normal, 2-parameter Log-Normal, Gumbel, Gamma) e multiparâmetros (GEV and Kappa), baseando-se no método dos momentos-L, as quais foram utilizadas no desenvolvimento da função regional pelo método da curva adimensional. A capacidade preditiva da função regional foi determinada por validação cruzada para diferentes tempos de retorno. Pode-se concluir que a abordagem baseada nos momentos-L no ajuste da função regional foi satisfatória. Além disso,a função regional: i) foi aperfeiçoada quando as distribuições multiparâmetros acima mencionadas foram usadas e ii) foi classificada como ótima para tempos de retorno de até 100 anos sendo útil a projetos práticos de engenharia e na gestão de cheias.

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Evaluating the non-stationarity of Australian annual maximum flood

Cited by 154 publications

References 48 publications

How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations

How streamflow has changed across Australia since the 1950s: evidence from the network of hydrologic reference stations

Detecção de Tendências Monotônicas Temporais e Relação com Erros dos Tipos I e II: Estudo de Caso em Séries de Precipitações Diárias Máximas Anuais do Estado do Acre

Hydrological regionalization of maximum stream flows using an approach based on L-moments

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