Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kitson, Joy; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Kao, Shih‐Chieh

doi:10.1029/2022jd036659

Cited by 24 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This ensemble data set used multiple combinations of global climate models, downscaling methods, and reference meteorological forcings that allowed for further uncertainty quantification. Within the multi‐model ensemble, 6 GCMs were selected from over 50 CMIP6 GCM simulations based on their data availability (for both dynamical and statistical downscaling), climate sensitivity, skillfulness, and independence (Table 1) (Ashfaq et al., 2022). The highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario, SSP585, was selected since it provides a worst‐case scenario, where fossil fuels would continue to be used without restriction (O'Neill et al., 2016).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

et al. 2023

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reservoirs play an essential socio-economic role worldwide, providing accessible water resources for agriculture, municipal use, and industrial production-especially during drought periods (Friedrich et al., 2018;Seckler et al., 1999). The invisible water losses from reservoirs through open water evaporation can be enormous in arid/semi-arid regions, which threatens the integrity of ecosystems, the sustainability of water resources, and the livelihoods of the humans who depend on these resources (Friedrich et al., 2018;Wurbs & Ayala, 2014). Compared to the natural lakes, the increasing trend of evaporation losses from artificial reservoirs is more significant (Zhao et al., 2022). With the pronounced global warming trend, reservoir evaporation losses are expected to exacerbate. Global lake evaporation is projected to increase by about 16% by 2100 under the business-as-usual scenario, with significant regional variation (Wang et al., 2018;Woolway et al., 2020). Other research has suggested that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, the projected evaporation

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

et al. 2023

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Overall, ESMs such as EC-Earth3-Veg tend to describe the most relevant climate feedback mechanisms and provide more thorough uncertainty measurements than global circulation models (GCMs) [ 50 ]. Whereas using an ensemble of future climate models is generally employed when fitting SDMs for larger regions to minimize individual model bias, we chose a single ESM that is shown to perform best for the small region we are modeling [ 51 ]. Using an ensemble that incorporates numerous GCMs/ESMs over a small region like a single state can skew predictions [ 51 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whereas using an ensemble of future climate models is generally employed when fitting SDMs for larger regions to minimize individual model bias, we chose a single ESM that is shown to perform best for the small region we are modeling [ 51 ]. Using an ensemble that incorporates numerous GCMs/ESMs over a small region like a single state can skew predictions [ 51 ]. SSP 585 is a future climate scenario that describes the expected baseline high greenhouse gas impact resulting from a lack of carbon emission mitigation policies [ 52 ], i.e., a “worst case” scenario.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

Kopsco

Gronemeyer

Mateus‐Pinilla

et al. 2023

Insects

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970–2000, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.

show abstract

“…Data for the climate prediction are generated for four scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP): Low greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6), intermediate greenhouse gas emissions (SSP2-4.5), high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP3-7.0), and very high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5) (Pörtner et al, 2022). All climatic prediction data were generated from an ensemble model consisting of 10 individual climate models with the lowest average weighted normalized relative error for the continental United States (Ashfaq et al, 2022;Fick & Hijmans, 2017;Vano et al, 2015). Historic temperature and precipitation data were gathered from WorldClim, based on observed measurements available from 1970 to 2000 (see Supporting Information).…”

Section: Estimating Climate Change Effects At Npgs Genebank Sitesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safeguarding plant genetic resources in the United States during global climate change

Volk¹,

Carver²,

Irish³

et al. 2023

Crop Science

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Plant genetic resources (PGR) underpin the security of global agriculture. Rapid global climate change presents formidable challenges for ex situ and in situ PGR management programs that operate over extended timeframes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS) maintains more than 605,000 PGR accessions representing over 16,300 plant species in 20 genebank locations. These PGR are maintained in cold storage as seeds and vegetative tissues that must be periodically regenerated; or as actively growing plants in fields, greenhouses, screenhouses, and in vitro; or in some cases within in situ reserves. The complicated relationships between crops and their growth environments present unique challenges regarding PGR maintenance under a changing climate. Here we present potential effects of climate change on ex situ PGR maintenance and reproductive success, pollinators and beneficial insects, pathogens and pests, infrastructure considerations, and wild populations within NPGS in situ reserves. We provide a novel tool that summarizes past US temperature and precipitation data alongside future climate projections to guide ongoing planning for the effects of climate change for NPGS genebanks throughout the United States. A series of case studies exemplify instances where climate change has already impacted NPGS PGR management. Ongoing improvements to NPGS PGR management in response to climate change require continued observations of the current effects, careful and innovative planning, and creative approaches to ensure that PGR are successfully conserved for future generations.

show abstract

Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies

Cited by 24 publications

References 54 publications

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States

Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

Safeguarding plant genetic resources in the United States during global climate change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About