Evaluation of modelling study shows limits of COVID-19 importing risk simulations in sub-Saharan Africa

Miyachi, Takashi; Tanimoto, Tetsuya; Kami, Masahiro

doi:10.1017/s095026882000120x

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…During the first months of the pandemic, the possible dynamics of transmission in sub-Saharan Africa were examined through mathematical models in the absence of country wide testing data (Diop et al 2020;Gilbert et al 2020;Miyachi, Tanimoto, and Kami 2020;Zhao et al 2020). As the virus spread (World Health Organization 2020b), African governments prepared health facilities (Ademuyiwa et al 2020;Kapata et al 2020;Senghore et al 2020) and developed guidelines for rehabilitation of COVID-19 patients (Ekwueme et al 2020).…”

Section: The Impact Of Covid-19 In Sub-saharan Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of COVID-19 measures on children with disabilities and their families in Uganda

Bannink

Naluyga

Kawesa

et al. 2021

Disability & Society

102

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Section: The Impact Of Covid-19 In Sub-saharan Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of COVID-19 measures on children with disabilities and their families in Uganda

Bannink

Naluyga

Kawesa

et al. 2021

Disability & Society

102

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“…Ghana discovered her first two cases of Covid-19 infection on 12th March, 2020 and since then, the number of Covid-19 cases has increased geometrically with new cases being recorded almost everyday. The author in [11] observed boundaries of Covid 19 importation risk scenarios in the sub-Saharan Africa. In their work, the circumstances of SARS Cov-2 virus importation into a sub-Saharan Africa as a low risk of new coronavirus transmission into Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana

Barnes

Ackora-Prah

Boateng³

et al. 2022

Scientific African

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In this paper, Covid-19 patients with self-immunity is incorporated in the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered model is applied to describe the epidemiology of Covid-19 infection in Ghana. Based on data on the epidemiology of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana, we observed that, on an average, three persons contract the Covid-19 infection from an infected person daily based using the basic reproductive number ( ) derived from the SEIQR model. In addition, the threshold condition for the long term stability of the Covid-19 infection in Ghana is derived from this model. Based on the Dulac criterion, it was observed that for a long period of time the epidemiology of Covid-19 in Ghana will be under control. Again, we observed that both the transmission rate natural death rate of a person in the various classes mostly influence the spread of Covid-19 infection followed by the exposed rate from exposure class to the infected class, then the rate at which an infected person is quarantined and finally, the rate at an exposed person is quarantined. On the other hand, the rate at which an exposed person recovers from his/her have least influence on the spread of Covid-19 infection in the country. Nevertheless, the rates of birth, transmission of Covid-19 infection to a susceptible person, exposure to Covid-19 infection and Covid-19 patient who is quarantined by the facilities provided by the Ghana Health Service are in direct relationship with . However, the rates at which a quarantiner dies from a Covid-19 infection, an infected person dies from a Covid-19 infection, natural death from each class and the recoveries from an infected class, exposed class and quarantined class are in relationship with .

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“…As of June 2 2020, 65% of all reported cases globally were from countries in Europe and North America [1]. Although it was predicted that Africa's epidemic would be delayed compared to Europe and North America due to the relatively lower risk of cases being imported from China, [2,3] the number and proportion of reported cases in Africa remains low, amounting to only 157,254 cases or 2.5% of the global total at that time (with South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria recording the most cases) [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lockdown measures in response to COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid study of nine countries

Haider

Osman

Gadzekpo

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Lockdown measures have been introduced worldwide to contain the transmission of COVID-19. This paper defines the term lockdown and describes the design, timing and implementation of lockdown in nine countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It also discusses the manner in which lockdown is enforced, the need to mitigate the harms of lockdown, and the association between lockdown and the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. While there are some commonalities in the implementation of lockdown, a more notable finding is the variation in the design, timing and implementation of lockdown measures across the nine countries. We found that the number of reported cases is heavily dependent on the number of tests done, and that testing rates ranged from 9 to 21,261 per million population. The reported number of COVID-19 deaths per million population also varies, but is generally low when compared to countries in Europe and North America. While lockdown measures may have helped inhibit some community transmission, the pattern and nature of the epidemic remains unclear. Of concern are signs of lockdown harming health by affecting the functioning of the health system and causing social and economic harms. This paper highlights the need for inter-sectoral and trans-disciplinary research capable of providing a rigorous and holistic assessment of the harms and benefits of lockdown.

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Evaluation of modelling study shows limits of COVID-19 importing risk simulations in sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

The impact of COVID-19 measures on children with disabilities and their families in Uganda

The impact of COVID-19 measures on children with disabilities and their families in Uganda

Mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of COVID-19 infection in Ghana

Lockdown measures in response to COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid study of nine countries

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