Evaluation of sentinel surveillance system for monitoring hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong

Edmond, Michael B.; Wong, Christine; Chuang, Shuk-Kwan

doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2011.09.002

Cited by 16 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…However, the statistical units of HFMD surveillance in different countries were different. Japan used the HFMD cases per sentinel clinics and hospitals ( http://idsc.nih.go.jp/iasr/20/230/de2309.html ); Taiwan used the HFMD cases per 1,000 emergency room visits; and Hong Kong used two sources including general practitioners (GPs) and general practice outpatient clinics (GOPCs) from the sentinel surveillance systems [ 21 ]. In Singapore, we used HFMD incidence, which divided the HFMD cases by their population each week.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

Lee

Tang

Hwang

et al. 2015

BioMed Research International

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Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has threatened East Asia for more than three decades and has become an important public health issue owing to its severe sequelae and mortality among children. The lack of effective treatment and vaccine for HFMD highlights the urgent need for efficiently integrated early warning surveillance systems in the region. In this study, we try to integrate the available surveillance and weather data in East Asia to elucidate possible spatiotemporal correlations and weather conditions among different areas from low to high latitude. The general additive model (GAM) was applied to understand the association between HFMD and latitude, as well as meteorological factors for islands in East Asia, namely, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, from 2012 to 2014. The results revealed that latitude was the most important explanatory factor associated with the timing and amplitude of HFMD epidemics (P < 0.0001). Meteorological factors including higher dew point, lower visibility, and lower wind speed were significantly associated with the rise of epidemics (P < 0.01). In summary, weather conditions and geographic location could play some role in affecting HFMD epidemics. Regional integrated surveillance of HFMD in East Asia is needed for mitigating the disease risk.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

Lee

Tang

Hwang

et al. 2015

BioMed Research International

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“…3,59 Evidence available from other countries has derived mostly from community surveillance or outbreaks among wider population age-groups, without laboratory confirmation of EV71 as the causative strain, and were therefore excluded from this review. 7,44,58,[60][61][62][63][64][65] Recommendations for future outbreaks…”

Section: Limitations Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Best practices to prevent transmission and control outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in childcare facilities: a systematic review

et al. 2017

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“…In Dalian city, a negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the weekly baseline number of HFMD cases and identified the optimal alerting threshold between different tested threshold values during the epidemic and nonepidemic year (An et al 2016). Most of these early warning models use historical case data to forecast an imminent outbreak; in fact, these models use only retrospective research (Edmond et al 2011). The operation of these models also closely depends on the data integrity of the risk factor variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China

Liao

Liu

et al. 2018

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease resulting in millions of cases and even hundreds of deaths. Although a newly developed formalin-inactivated EV71 (FI-EV71) vaccine is effective against EV71, which is a major pathogen for HFMD, no vaccine against HFMD itself has yet been developed. Therefore, establishing a sensitive and accurate early warning system for HFMD is important. The early warning model for HFMD in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System combines control chart and spatial statistics models to detect spatiotemporal abnormal aggregations of morbidity. However, that type of early warning for HFMD just involves retrospective analysis. In this study, we apply a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to estimate the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month based on pathogen detection and environmental factors. Hunan province, one of the regions with the highest prevalence of HFMD in China, was selected as the study area. The results showed that compared with the traditional early warning model for HFMD, the proposed method can achieve a very high performance evaluation (the average AUC tests were more than 0.92). The model is also simple and easy to operate. Once the structure of the BBN is established, the increased risk of death and severe HFMD in the next month can be estimated based on any one node in the BBN. Keywords Hand, foot, and mouth disease Á Early warning Á Spatiotemporal abnormal aggregation Á Moving percentile method Á Bayesian belief network

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Evaluation of sentinel surveillance system for monitoring hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong

Abstract: The SSS is effective for monitoring HFMD trends in Hong Kong, and is useful for initiating preventive measures.

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

Best practices to prevent transmission and control outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in childcare facilities: a systematic review

Using a Bayesian belief network model for early warning of death and severe risk of HFMD in Hunan province, China

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