Evaluation of the National Concept Traffic Management for mass evacuation in the Netherlands

Friso, K.; Zuilekom, Kasper M. van; Kolen, B.

doi:10.1109/icnsc.2011.5874942

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Specifically related to evacuation, Friso et al (19,20) considered ramp closures in the Netherlands. They divided the study area into three zones for flooding evacuation: (a) threatened area, (b) transit zone, and (c) the rest of the Netherlands.…”

Section: Ramp Closures Under Varying Budgets and Demand Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

No-Notice Evacuation Management

Machiani

Murray‐Tuite

Jahangiri

et al. 2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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To promote smoother freeway traffic flow during evacuations, ramps may be closed and thus reduce the number of merging and related speed reduction points. Deciding which ramps to close can be treated as an optimization problem in which the decision variables are integers that indicate whether the ramp is open or closed. This paper examines the problem under multiple demand and budget scenarios for no-notice evacuations. Through the optimization formulation and solution method, optimized closure plans are developed for each scenario and compared with the do-nothing case, and an existing plan is developed with professional judgment. The optimized plans outperform the others in the evacuees' total travel time but are sometimes associated with decreases in overall network throughput. Three ramp closures, consistent across the scenarios, are explored as a reduced closure plan, and evacuee benefits are identified for all of the scenarios over the do-nothing option except in the most congested background traffic scenario. However, even in the most congested case, the three-ramp closure plan improved evacuees' travel times over the plan developed without analytical and simulation support. Although the exact optimized ramp closure plan varies across scenarios and budgets, overlap of the plans can help generate a smaller closure plan that provides benefits over plans that are strictly judgment based and over the do-nothing option in less congested cases.

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Section: Ramp Closures Under Varying Budgets and Demand Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

No-Notice Evacuation Management

Machiani

Murray‐Tuite

Jahangiri

et al. 2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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“…This 20% estimate is based on an enquiry by “TNS NIPO” in the Netherlands and on what has been learned from experience during hurricane‐induced evacuation in New Orleans . These reference scenarios are described in detail in other research …”

Section: Case Study: Mass Evacuation For the Netherlandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(3,4,18) The need to take alternative strategies for preventive evacuation into account is addressed in recent literature. A comparison of the available time from an early warning to the required time for evacuation in the Netherlands (19,1) as well as an analysis of 50 years of flash flooding in Australia (20,14) showed that preventive evacuation is not always the best strategy to save more lives than other strategies, such as vertical evacuation or staying in situ. This research concludes that literature about vertical evacuation or staying in situ is limitedly available because preventive evacuation is such a well-established means of emergency management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats

et al. 2012

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Evacuation of people in case of a threat is a possible risk management strategy. Evacuation has the potential to save lives, but it can be costly with respect to time, money, and credibility. The consequences of an evacuation strategy depend on a combination of the time available, citizen response, authority response, and capacity of the infrastructure. The literature that discusses evacuations in case of flood risk management focuses, in most cases, only on a best-case strategy as a preventive evacuation and excludes other possible strategies. This article introduces a probabilistic method, EvacuAid, to determine the benefits of different types of evacuation with regards to loss of life. The method is applied for a case study in the Netherlands for preventive and vertical evacuation due to flood risk. The results illustrate the impact of uncertainties in available time and actual conditions (e.g., the responses of citizens and authorities and the use of infrastructure). It is concluded that preparation for evacuation requires adaptive planning that takes preventive and vertical evacuation into account, based on a risk management approach.

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Modeling and Assessment of Crossing Elimination for No-Notice Evacuations

Jahangiri

Murray‐Tuite

Machiani

et al. 2014

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Crossing elimination is a relatively recent strategy that emergency managers and departments of transportation may consider during no-notice evacuations. In this strategy, certain intersection movements that may be permissible under normal operating conditions are prohibited so that arterial traffic flow will increase. A few previous studies examined this strategy with contraflow operations. However, the benefits of crossing elimination alone remain unclear. An assessment of the effects of intersection crossing elimination during evacuations helps fill this knowledge gap. A simulation–optimization model was developed to determine the near-optimal configuration of intersection movements from a set of pre-specified possible configurations for intersections in a given area. At the optimization level, the total travel time of evacuees was minimized, and at the lower level, all traffic was assigned to the network with DYNUST traffic assignment simulation software. A simulated annealing heuristic was used to solve the optimization problem. The entire method was applied to a real network to assess the impact of crossing elimination. Three scenarios were developed with combinations of evacuee destination and departure time distributions. Results for these scenarios indicated that total evacuee travel time was improved by about 3% to 5% (9,700 to 11,200 h for about 300,000 evacuees). The availability of through movements and the elimination of merging points were the two factors influencing the selection of modified configurations for intersection movement.

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Evaluation of the National Concept Traffic Management for mass evacuation in the Netherlands

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

No-Notice Evacuation Management

No-Notice Evacuation Management

EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats

Modeling and Assessment of Crossing Elimination for No-Notice Evacuations

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