Mobile phone data are a rich source to infer all kinds of mobilityrelated information. In this research, we present an approach where mobile phone data are used and analyzed for enriching the transport model of the region of Rotterdam. In this research Call Detail Records (CDR) are used from a mobile phone provider in the Netherlands that serves between 30 and 40 percent of Dutch mobile phones. Accessing these data provides travel information of about one-third of the Dutch population. No other data source is known that gives travel information at a national scale at this high level. The raw data of one month is processed into basic information which is subsequently translated into OD-information (Origin-Destination) based on several decision rules. This OD information is compared with the traditionally estimated a priori OD matrix of the Rotterdam transport model and the Dutch yearly national household travel survey. Based on the analysis and assignment results, an approach is developed to combine the mobile phone ODinformation and an a priori OD matrix using the best of both worlds. Results show a better match of the assignment results of this matrix with the counts indicating a better quality of the matrix.

It is impossible to execute a complete and total preventive evacuation of coastal areas in the Netherlands within the available 48-hour time span in case of a storm surge [1,2]. This is mainly due to the limitations of the road capacity in proportion to the number of inhabitants in the threatened area. A flexible triage is proposed to set the target areas and target groups for those circumstances where it is impossible to evacuate all. The routing of all highway traffic (evacuation as well as not-evacuation) was derived from the National Concept Traffic Management (NCTM). In order to reduce the lead-time of the study a mix of static and macroscopic dynamic assignments is used.Manuscript received November 1, 2010. K. Friso is with Goudappel Coffeng B.V.,

Short-term traffic prediction has a lot of potential for traffic management. However, most research has traditionally focused on either traffic models -which do not scale very well to large networks, computationally -or on data-driven methods for freeways, leaving out urban arterials completely. Urban arterials complicate traffic predictions, compared to freeways, because the non-linear effects of traffic are more pronounced on short links and with the presence of more crossings, more modalities and nonnecessarily conservation of flow (parking). In this paper we consider several data-driven methods and their prediction performance for various situations, including both freeways and urban arterials, for prediction horizons from five minutes up to one week. The focus lies on predicting the traffic flow and speed given available measured data on a certain location. Thus challenges regarding data fusion, state estimation, and other methods providing complete temporal and spatial data is not addressed.The methods evaluated include several naive, parametric and non-parametric methods. For the evaluation of the prediction performance several weeks of data of various locations were used. Performance indicators contained the Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Error. Because evaluating average performance might ignore the performance for non-regular traffic conditions, the evaluation also focused on non-regular traffic conditions. Especially these conditions are important in practice, because in these situations the need for accurate information is the highest.Real-world applicability of traffic prediction requires not only accurate results, but also an indication of the accuracy for each prediction. Earlier research has mostly ignored this, leaving this up to the intuition of users of these predictions. This paper introduces a simple way to calculate confidence intervals, applicable to any traffic prediction method. For comparing these confidence intervals between different prediction horizons, an error measure for the accuracy of a confidence interval is defined. Two methods, SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and NLM (Neighborhood Link Method), proved to be the best. The results also indicate key features necessary for accurate traffic prediction with data-driven methods. The results also show reasonably accurate confidence intervals, with those intervals able to adapt well to different traffic situations.

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