Evaluation of the Tourism Climate Index over Japan in a Future Climate Using a Statistical Downscaling Method

Kubokawa, Hiroyasu; Inoue, Tsuyoshi; Satoh, Masaki

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2014-103

Cited by 22 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Although positive correlations between tourism climate indices and tourist arrivals have also been found in other studies (e.g., Japan [54], China [55]), tourism climate indices have not yet been designed specifically to predict tourism demand and do not generate quantitative predictions about tourism arrivals to specific destinations. Therefore, the application of indices like the TCI, which also have known conceptual limitations and do not represent some salient tourism market segments like beach tourism, to projections of arrivals under changed climate scenarios (e.g., Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, South Pacific) remain uncertain at best.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

et al. 2020

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Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists’ stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index—the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach—for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

et al. 2020

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“…Over the years many variations and adaptations of this approach have been developed. In attempts to consider types of tourism other than sun and beach, Kubokawa et al (2014) focused on climate zones, while Ma et al (2020) focused on seasonality or specific types of accommodation (e.g., camping). Nevertheless, this approach has been criticized due to the lack of normative thresholds, especially with respect to thermal comfort (Dubois et al, 2016), but also because general doubts of applicability to all types of tourism have been expressed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How weather conditions affect guest arrivals and duration of stay: An alpine destination case

Bausch

Gartner

Humpe

2021

Journal of Tourism Research

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Weather can be a major concern for travelers when choosing a destination, preparing their trip and during their stay. Existing publications focus on explaining the role of weather based on one, or at most, a few parameters and usually for one season. This paper proposes a new approach covering all four seasons by connecting daily data from meteorological stations to tourists' registration information. This approach allows for an understanding of travel volumes based on actual travel data and not on perceptions or desired outcomes. The results suggest a clear impact of weather on the number and duration of short-term trips for all seasons. There was no clear indication that weather forecasts played a significant role in the structure of mid or long term trips.

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“…Mieczkowski (1985) proposed the assessment method of tourism climate index in 1985. Since 2000, Amelung et al (2007), and Kubokawa et al (2014) have used the tourism climate index to predict changes in climate attractiveness. Hewer et al (2016) and Jedd et al (2018) tried to construct a correlation model between climate and tourist flows, and analyzed the impact of temperature changes on the scale of tourism flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on Tibet tourism based on tourism climate index

Zhong

Zeng

2019

J. Geogr. Sci.

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Climate change is an important factor affecting the sustainable development of tourist destinations. Based on the monthly observation data of the main meteorological stations on the ground in Tibet from 1960 to 2015, this paper constructs a tourism climate index model. This index is used to quantitatively evaluate the tourism climate changes in Tibet, and investigate the impact of climate change on tourism. The results show that from 1960 to 2015, the temperature in Tibet increased by 1.35°C, and the tourism climate index changed significantly, especially in the regions of Changtang, Ngari and Kunlun Mountain. The fluctuation of temperature-humidity index, wind-chill index and index of clothing of these areas was larger than that of other regions. The changes of each index in different months are different, where spring observes larger changes while summer observes smaller changes. The tourism climate index in northwestern Tibet has increased, and the climate comfort period is expanding. In southeastern Tibet, the comfort level has declined and the comfort level in the central part has been slowly increasing. The comfort index in the southeastern part of Tibet has gradually declined, and the comfort index in central Tibet has slowly increased. According to the comprehensive assessment method including temperature and humidity index, wind-chill index, index of clothing and altitude adaptability index, the types of tourism climate index in Tibet can be divided into reduced, low-speed growth, medium-speed growth and rapid growth. Different regions should adopt alternative tourism products, strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction technology applications and green infrastructure construction, and appropriately control the scale of tourism activities so as to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change on tourist destinations.

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Evaluation of the Tourism Climate Index over Japan in a Future Climate Using a Statistical Downscaling Method

Cited by 22 publications

References 11 publications

An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Beach) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) to Explain Canadian Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

How weather conditions affect guest arrivals and duration of stay: An alpine destination case

Impact of climate change on Tibet tourism based on tourism climate index

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