Evolutionary characteristics of the atmospheric circulations for frequent and infrequent dust storm springs in northern China and the detection of potential future seasonal forecast signals

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The evolutionary characteristics of dust storms in spring in northern China springs are determined by synthesizing the previous patterns and analyzing the geopotential height at 500 hPa. Some potential seasonal predictors are found through detecting the atmospheric circulation factors in both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Based on the frequency series obtained through comprehensive investigations of dust storm events which occurred from 1970 to 2005, two sample sets, each containing 6 years, are selected to represent the most frequent and infrequent occurrences of spring dust storms. For the first set, most of the West Pacific subtropical highs in the previous summer are relatively small and weak compared to those in normal years. In the previous winter, the mid-latitude region of the Eurasian continent is strongly controlled by a large and active low system, simultaneously with a strong and westerly positioned trough over East Asia. The northern hemisphere polar vortex, in general, changes from weak to strong with a large area from the previous winter to the current spring. The geopotential height over the Tibetan Plateau keeps a lower than normal value with a relatively strong India-Burma trough from the preceding summer in to the spring. For the second set, the evolution displays opposite features. Furthermore, by using a bootstrapping technique, indices of the atmospheric circulation elements are detected quantitatively. The forecast skill score of the 36 year hindcast indicates that those indices can provide forecast signals in certain situations for spring dust storm seasonal predictions in northern China.

Climatic controls on the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Toward the development of a seasonal dust prediction model

“…The potential for seasonal prediction of dust activity has been investigated across select global regions, but not yet for the Middle East, largely through linear regression models. In order to predict spring dust activity in northern China, Gao and Han [] examined the transient characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and identified potential predictors, including West Pacific subtropical highs and Eurasian continental lows. Lang [] built a statistical prediction model through linear regression for spring dust storm frequency in north China using antecedent temperature, precipitation, and large‐scale climatic indices.…”

Relationship between the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern and the spring dust storm in northern China. Part‐I: Impacts of components of the atmospheric circulation over Eurasia on dust storm dynamic power—Spring gales

“…The causes of DSs are very complex. Although some DS influencing factors have been confirmed, including surface vegetation, precipitation from the previous term to the contemporary spring, temperature, relative humidity, human activities, and certain atmospheric circulation systems (e.g., the western Pacific subtropical high [WPSH], North Polar vortex [NPV], and East Asian trough) are associated with the DS frequency in northern China (Gao & Han, 2010), the Asian dust forecasting still keeps suffering from large uncertainties (Lee et al, 2017; UNEP, WMO, and UNCCD, 2016).…”

Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific

“…(LinHo et al 2008;Coy et al 2009;Wen et al 2009;Gao and Han 2010;Zhao et al 2010;Gao et al 2014). For instance, the interannual variation of the low-frequency oscillation over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia has been identified as closely connected to the C-EU teleconnection pattern in boreal winter (Yang et al 2014).…”