Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

Cairns, George; Wright, George; Bradfield, Ron; Heijden, Kees van der; Burt, George

doi:10.1016/s0040-1625(02)00371-2

Cited by 54 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Broad issue scanning differs from issue analysis (described later) in that the issue is broad enough so that the individual debates are likely to be separate and to use completely different terminology. It differs from environmental scanning (Wei & Lee, 2004) in that the focus is on public debates rather than commercial competitive intelligence, although environmental scanning is sometimes drawn upon in noncommercial contexts, such as government forecasting and trend detection (Cairns, Wright, Bradfield, van der Heijden, & Burt, 2004;Vander Beken, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are raw RSS feeds suitable for broad issue scanning? A science concern case study

Thelwall

Prabowo

Fairclough

2006

J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci.

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Metadata onlyBroad issue scanning is the task of identifying important public debates arising in a given broad issue; really simple syndication (RSS) feeds are a natural information source for investigating broad issues. RSS, as originally conceived, is a method for publishing timely and concise information on the Internet, for example, about the main stories in a news site or the latest postings in a blog. RSS feeds are potentially a nonintrusive source of high-quality data about public opinion: Monitoring a large number may allow quantitative methods to extract information relevant to a given need. In this article we describe an RSS feed-based coword frequency method to identify bursts of discussion relevant to a given broad issue. A case study of public science concerns is used to demonstrate the method and assess the suitability of raw RSS feeds for broad issue scanning (i.e., without data cleansing). An attempt to identify genuine science concern debates from the corpus through investigating the top 1,000 burst words found only two genuine debates, however. The low success rate was mainly caused by a few pathological feeds that dominated the results and obscured any significant debates. The results point to the need to develop effective data cleansing procedures for RSS feeds, particularly if there is not a large quantity of discussion about the broad issue, and a range of potential techniques is suggested. Finally, the analysis confirmed that the time series information generated by real-time monitoring of RSS feeds could usefully illustrate the evolution of new debates relevant to a broad issue

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are raw RSS feeds suitable for broad issue scanning? A science concern case study

Thelwall

Prabowo

Fairclough

2006

J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci.

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“…The scenario approach that we adopt as the basis for our methodological development is that proffered by van der Heijden et al [16,17,18], which is widely reported in academic literature, both in terms of its success in provoking organizational change [17] and in relation to the problems that can arise when powerful actors militate against change [18]. In addition, its employment as an educational resource in the MBA classroom has been evaluated [19].…”

Section: Applying Scenario Methods As Action Learning On Alternative Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Problematizing international business futures through a ‘critical scenario method’

Cairns

Śliwa

Wright

2010

Futures

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Publisher's copyright statement:Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. Problematizing international business futures through a "critical scenario method" AbstractThis paper proposes the need for change in how managers in international business (IB) determine organisational objectives and what criteria they use in addressing complex problems. We propose a move from a largely firm-centric focus; on profit maximization and shareholder value; to a broader societal and environmental view. We see the educational context as the locus for initiating such a shift. However, we see obstacles within the canon of mainstream IB textbooks, with their focus on exposition of normative models of managerial action, illustrated by case studies of successful multinational enterprises (MNEs). Whilst we acknowledge their incorporation of critical issues, we view the lack of substantive critical reflection on the wider implications of IB activity as underpinned by an implicit assumption of the "good" of IB. We posit that the normative structure of mainstream texts militates against students understanding the full range of possible futures for IB practice, and against developing the capability to cope with situations of uncertainty and ambiguity. Seeking to promote a critical pedagogy that accommodates consideration of both mainstream approaches and critical responses to these, we propose one approach to teaching and learning about IB futures that is based upon development of what we term "critical scenario method". This offers a basis for active investigation of complex problems in the "real" world from a range of perspectives, beyond that of profit maximization. We provide a worked, case example of our new method and demonstrate how it will enhance perceptions/understandings of involved and affected actors" interests and their likely (re)actions as a particular scenario unfolds. The theoretical grounding for this approach is based upon contemporary social science interpretation of the Aristotelian concept of phronēsis, or "practical wisdom".

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“…The identification of the desired scenario, among all possible, enables to prioritize the list of actions needed to be carried out in the present so as to achieve the desired goal in the future. Thus, the objective is not to project the past into the future but to serve as a link between future perceptions and the current decision-making process, by exploring future possible scenarios (Bañuls & Turoff, 2011;Cairns, Wright, Bradfield, Heijden, & Burt, 2004;Huss, 1988;Martino, 2003). market of a renewable energy with significant growth potential at the international level, promoting, in turn, the country's economic development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

Medina

Borda

Mahía

2015

Futures

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Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

Cited by 54 publications

References 18 publications

Are raw RSS feeds suitable for broad issue scanning? A science concern case study

Are raw RSS feeds suitable for broad issue scanning? A science concern case study

Problematizing international business futures through a ‘critical scenario method’

Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events

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