Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

Zúñiga-Upegui, Pamela Tatiana; Arnaiz-Schmitz, Cecilia; Herrero‐Jáuregui, Cristina; Smart, Simon M.; López-Santiago, César A.; Schmitz, María F.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…Although the deleterious environmental impacts of war are felt long after the con ict in most cases, some studies suggested that some forests and biodiversity rebounded after the war due to a decrease in human pressure (Kaimowitz and Fauné 2003). In our case, the result obtained from the analysis opposes the narrative that war can have positive impacts on the environment, especially during post-con ict and peace periods (Clerici et al 2020;Reardon 2018;Stevens et al 2011;Zúñiga-upegui et al 2019). Although the reduction in human pressure can be bene cial for the environment, it cannot guarantee sustainable environmental security.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 63%

Satellite Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Armed-Conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Aung

2020

Preprint

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The impacts of armed conflict on the environment are extremely complex and difficult to investigate, given the impossibility of accessing the affected area and reliable data limitation. Very-high-resolution satellite imageries and highly reliable machine learning algorithms become very useful in studying direct and indirect impacts of war on the ecosystem, in addition to connected effects on human lives. The Rohingya conflict is described as one of the worst humanitarian crises and human-made disasters of the 21st Century. Quantification of damage due to the conflict and the suitability of human resettlement has been lacking despite the ongoing agreements to repatriate refugees and the importance of ecosystem services for the communities' survival. Here we report the investigation of environmental conditions pre-, during, and post-conflict in the conflict zone using satellite data. We implemented and experienced the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based computing platform with a widely applied algorithm, the Random Forest (RF) classifier. We found striking near-complete demolition of inhabited regions, dramatic and highly significant increase in burning areas, and substantial deforestation. We discuss the reasons behind such findings from the Rakhine case and debate some general conservation lessons applicable to other countries undergoing post-conflict transitions.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 63%

Satellite Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Armed-Conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Aung

2020

Preprint

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Satellite analysis of the environmental impacts of armed-conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Aung

2021

Science of The Total Environment

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The impacts of armed con ict on the environment are extremely complex and di cult to investigate, given the impossibility of accessing the affected area and reliable data limitation. Very-high-resolution satellite imageries and highly reliable machine learning algorithms become very useful in studying direct and indirect impacts of war on the ecosystem, in addition to connected effects on human lives. The Rohingya con ict is described as one of the worst humanitarian crises and human-made disasters of the 21st Century. Quanti cation of damage due to the con ict and the suitability of human resettlement has been lacking despite the ongoing agreements to repatriate refugees and the importance of ecosystem services for the communities' survival. Here we report the investigation of environmental conditions pre-, during, and post-con ict in the con ict zone using satellite data. We implemented and experienced the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based computing platform with a widely applied algorithm, the Random Forest (RF) classi er. We found striking near-complete demolition of inhabited regions, dramatic and highly signi cant increase in burning areas, and substantial deforestation. We discuss the reasons behind such ndings from the Rakhine case and debate some general conservation lessons applicable to other countries undergoing post-con ict transitions. IntroductionAll over the world, the environment is being affected by anthropogenic activities. From the disruption of the Earth's climate system, ocean lling up with plastic, pollution, and forest degradation to damaging the entire ecosystem, human actions have changed the make-up of Earth's surface. While these changes are easier to detect in a politically stable context, it is notoriously challenging to assess how the environment is affected in areas faced by armed con ict, either directly by the con ict or indirectly through the socio-economic and political conditions that con icts create. The impacts of violent con ict on human are generally well-understood and extensively documented (

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“…On the basis of "climate-livelihood" vulnerability analysis framework, combined with the research outcomes of well-known scholars and the particular circumstances of the study area (Zhu et al, 2018;Li and Ford, 2019;Armatas et al, 2017;Binita et al, 2015;Stefanie et al, 2019;Zuniga-Upegui et al, 2019;Shinn and Hall-Reinhard, 2019), this paper constructs an evaluation index system from three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability (Table 1).…”

Section: Index System Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability assessment of rural social-ecological system to climate change: a case study of Yunnan Province, China

Zhou

Ahmed

2021

IJCCSM

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively measure the vulnerability level of the whole rural social-ecological system in Yunnan Province and to analyze the spatial differences of the vulnerability in different regions. Design/methodology/approach Based on the “exposure-sensitivity-adaptability” vulnerability assessment framework, this paper establishes the index system of rural social-ecological system vulnerability to climate change. Combined with the questionnaire survey and meteorological data, the entropy method was used to measure and analyze the vulnerability level and influencing factors of the overall rural social-ecological system in Yunnan Province. At the same time, the vulnerability level of social-ecological system in Yunnan Province is divided into five levels, and the spatial differences of vulnerability level of 16 states (cities) in Yunnan Province are analyzed. Findings The results show that: the social-ecological system has high exposure to climate change (0.809), strong sensitivity (0.729), moderate adaptability (0.297) and overall system vulnerability is at a medium level (0.373). Yunnan Province is divided into five levels of social-ecological system vulnerable areas. The areas of extreme, severe, moderate, mild and slight vulnerability account for 21.45%, 24.65%, 36.82%, 13.18% and 3.90% of the whole province, respectively. The geographical division and vulnerability division of Yunnan Province are basically consistent in space. Originality/value Comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of the social-ecological system of Yunnan Province to climate change is the scientific basis for the country to formulate countermeasures against climate change, and it is also the need to improve the adaptability of the social and economic system of the fragile area, reduce the vulnerability and realize the sustainable development of national social economy. The research results can provide a basis for decision-making of climate adaptation in Yunnan and other regions and provide methods and indicators for the assessment of social-ecological system vulnerability under the background of climate change.

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Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

Cited by 19 publications

References 102 publications

Satellite Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Armed-Conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Satellite Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Armed-Conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Satellite analysis of the environmental impacts of armed-conflict in Rakhine, Myanmar

Vulnerability assessment of rural social-ecological system to climate change: a case study of Yunnan Province, China

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