BackgroundDepression in ageing adults is a public health problem. Worldwide studies have identified social and health risk factors for depressive symptoms. However, little is known about their longitudinal determinants in Mexico.Objectives and settingTo find the prevalence of depressive symptoms and their longitudinal individual and contextual risk factors in Mexican adults aged 50 and older.DesignSecondary data of 6460 persons aged 50 years and older from the Mexican Health and Aging Study were analysed using a ‘between-within’ panel data analysis approach.ResultsThe prevalence of depressive symptoms increased from 35% in 2003 to 38% in 2015. The significantly longitudinal factors associated with these symptoms were getting older (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03), being a woman (OR 2.39, 95% CI 2.16 to 2.64), less time spent in formal education (0 years and less than 6 years OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.75 and OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.50, respectively), lower net worth (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.17), being recently unemployed (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.25), increased (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.25) or increasing number (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.31) of chronic conditions, poor (OR 4.68, 95% CI 4.26 to 5.15) or worsened (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.61 to 1.81) self-rated health and having impairments on instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) (OR 2.94 95% CI 2.35 to 3.67) or a new IADL impairment (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.89), as well as having impairments on ADLs (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.86) or a new ADL impairment (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.48).ConclusionsThe prevalence of depressive symptoms in Mexican adults aged 50 and older is high. Our findings show that they are longitudinally associated with the individual’s demographic, socioeconomic, health and disability characteristics. Efforts in public policy should focus on preventing chronic conditions and disability, as well as fighting inequalities to reduce the prevalence of depressive symptoms.