2019
DOI: 10.1111/conl.12668
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Final countdown for biodiversity hotspots

Abstract: Most of Earth's biodiversity is found in 36 biodiversity hotspots, yet less than 10% natural intact vegetation remains. We calculated models projecting the future state of most of these hotspots for the year 2050, based on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure. Our models project an increasing demand for agricultural land resulting in the conversion of >50% of remaining natural intact vegetation in about one third of all hotspots, and in 2–6 hotspots resulting from climatic pressure. This confirms that, in… Show more

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Cited by 106 publications
(61 citation statements)
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“…The tropics have abundant plant life that grows throughout the year. Approximately 14 of the world's 34 biodiversity hotspots (Habel et al, 2019) and 50% of all known plant species are in tropical zones (Primack and Morrison, 2013).…”
Section: Background Tropical Zones and A Changing Climatementioning
confidence: 99%
“…The tropics have abundant plant life that grows throughout the year. Approximately 14 of the world's 34 biodiversity hotspots (Habel et al, 2019) and 50% of all known plant species are in tropical zones (Primack and Morrison, 2013).…”
Section: Background Tropical Zones and A Changing Climatementioning
confidence: 99%
“…Our findings demonstrate that although these three endangered freshwater turtles are protected by several IUCN designated and proposed reserves, their populations are vulnerable as a result of extensive habitat loss and fragmentation in the present and expected to increase in the future (Sodhi et al 2004, Habel et al 2019. Despite being protected under national laws, many of these species are still relentlessly poached for eggs and meat and exported due to the lack of law enforcement (van Dijk et al 2000, TCC 2018).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 84%
“…However, with the unavailability of stable suitable Protected Areas suggested by our models and assuming highly conservative climatic niches and low potential for rapid evolutionary adaptations in turtles (Stephens andWiens 2009, Berriozabal-Islas et al 2020), we would expect a severe decline in their populations in the future. In addition, synergistic effects from continued exploitation, habitat loss and degradation, economic development, agricultural pressures, and endemic plant species loss predicted by the year 2050 increase the uncertainty of long-term persistence of these turtles (Habel et al 2019).…”
Section: Impact Of Climate Changementioning
confidence: 99%
“…We demonstrate that conventional tourism land use and urban development can have severe impacts on the ground-associated invertebrate diversity on remote oceanic atoll islands. Although agriculture is currently considered the predominant driver of the worldwide species decline [62], it is crucial to investigate and consider all human land uses for obtaining a global impact assessment, especially in regions where land use types other than agriculture are predominant. Only by generating a holistic understanding of the different human pressures and their severity on the world's biomes will it be possible to effectively counteract the ongoing global biodiversity loss.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%