We discuss f i among these conjectural factors in the Drake equation in this paper. Previous estimates of f i range from pessimistic (f i ∼ 0) to optimistic (f i ∼ 1). In general, while many physicists and astronomers prefer the optimistic value, many biologists prefer a value several orders of magnitude smaller 8,9. Table 1 shows the various estimated values of f i and f l • f i • f c to date. This paper introduces a new approach to estimating the probability that life on Earth has not gone extinct since the birth of life, f i,⊕. Since its birth, life on Earth has gone through many extinction events due to various random external factors, such as changes in the environment or impacts of meteorites. Extinction events of high intensity (where a significant fraction of species disappear) occur much less frequently than events of low intensity. The fossil record in the Phanerozoic Eon, which covers 540 Myr to the present 22,23 , indicates that a histogram of extinction intensity can be well modeled by a log-normal distribution. This log-normal distribution of extinction was converted into a cumulative probability that life on Earth survives up to the present, f i,⊕ , by "continuing to win the lottery of extinction" since its birth. The obtained survival probability, f i,⊕ , can be a template for estimating f i in the Drake equation, or other factors for estimating the number of life-bearing exoplanets, assuming that life on any other exoplanets essentially always becomes complex if it does not become extinct first.