Flood Risk Management with Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics in the Kabul River Basin

Abstract

The Kabul River, while having its origin in Afghanistan, has a primary tributary, the Konar River, which originates in Pakistan and enters Afghanistan near Barikot-Arandu. The Kabul River then re-enters Pakistan near Laalpur, Afghanistan making it a true transboundary river. The catastrophic flood events due to major snowmelt events in the Hindu Kush mountains occur every other year, inundating many major urban centers. This study investigates the flood risk under 30 climate and dam management scenarios to assess opportunities for transboundary water management strategy in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydraulic modeling tool that was employed to forecast peak flows to characterize flood inundation areas using the river flood routing modelling tool Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System -HEC-RAS for the Nowshera region. This study shows how integrated transboundary water management in the KRB can play a vital catalyst role with significant socio-economic benefits for both nations. The study proposes a KRB-specific agreement, where flood risk management is a significant driver that can bring both countries to work together under the Equitable Water Resource Utilization Doctrine to save lives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The findings show that flood mitigation relying on collaborative efforts for both upstream and downstream riparian states is highly desirable.

The Role of Large Dams in a Transboundary Drought Management Co-Operation Framework—Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

“…The HKH Mountains are mostly covered with bare rocks, permanent snow, and glaciers above the altitude of 5000 m [11]. Approximately 2.3% of the total KRB area is covered by glaciers [1]. The average annual precipitation in the KRB ranges from 200 mm in the lower elevation to 3000 mm in the HKH mountains [22,23].…”

“…The Kabul River Basin (KRB), due to its geographical location, complex steep terrain, and aggregated population growth, is a basin that experiences extreme hydrologic events from catastrophic floods to extreme droughts [1]. Seasonal droughts directly impact the annual agricultural crop yield resulting in lower economic returns and loss of profit.…”

“…The Kabul River is a major tributary of the Indus River and plays a vital role in the lives of over 25 million people in Afghanistan and Pakistan [1]. The Kabul River contributes 9.2% of Indus flows for the annual average (19.35 billion m 3 ) of the Indus River water at its Dakah outlet [10].…”

Data sharing in transboundary water management

“…In the twentieth century, Afghanistan's glaciers declined by 50-70%, and fast snow and glacier melt caused landslides, river blockages, and downstream flooding (Vick, 2014). Located below the Hindu Kush Himalayas, Afghanistan and Pakistan are prone to flash flooding from annual rain-on-snow events (Taraky et al, 2021). By 2100, average surface temperature of the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalayan area are expected to climb faster than the world average and annual precipitation in the Kabul River basin is likely to increase by 8-12% (Iqbal et al, 2018).…”

Kabul River Flow Prediction Using Automated ARIMA Forecasting: A Machine Learning Approach

“…Human activities like hydropower structures, an explosion in population, a heavy amount of silt, inadequate rainfall annually, unregulated urbanization, illegal settlements, and unapproved water channels from this river have caused a reduction in its water level. Therefore, in terms of its importance for human existence and increased water demand, it is necessary for Pakistan to limit its future water demand and flow [27,28].…”