Forecasting Codling Moth Phenology Based on Pheromone Trap Catches and Physiological-Time Models

Riedl, Helmut; Croft, B. A.; Howitt, Angus J.

doi:10.4039/ent108449-5

Cited by 132 publications

(124 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…More insecticide applications and quantity of insecticide are applied per acre to control the codling moth than any other pest in Washington (NASS 2006). A model was developed to predict the seasonal life history of codling moth using an accumulation of degreedays (Riedl et al 1976, Welch et al 1978, Beers and Brunner 1992. Insect development is governed primarily by temperature so changes in precipitation are not expected to contribute to changes in pest status for most insects.…”

Section: Insectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

et al. 2010

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A n assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen to evaluate impacts for the periods 2010-2039, 2030-2059 and 2070-2099, identified as 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively. All climate projections reflect a warming future climate, but the individual GCMs vary with respect to precipitation changes -some models reflect wetter conditions and some drier. The assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state at selected representative locations: irrigated apples at Sunnyside; irrigated potatoes at Othello; dryland wheat at Pullman (high precipitation), Saint John (intermediate precipitation), and Lind and Odessa (low precipitation). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences, including simulations with and without concurrent elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by the IPCC A1B CO 2 emission projection. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops) and nutrient supply and possible negative impacts from pests and diseases were not accounted for. Simulation results project that the impact of climate change on selected but economically significant crops in eastern Washington will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, the projected CO 2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation of climate change effects, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. Yields of winter wheat, without CO 2 effect, are projected to increase 2% to 8% for the 2020 scenario, tending to decline with further warming in high precipitation locations, but continue increasing to reach a 12% gain by the 2080s in low precipitation locations. With CO 2 elevation, winter wheat yields are projected to increase by 15% for the 2020 scenario, with larger increases later in the century. Spring wheat yields are projected not to change for the 2020 scenario, and decline 10% to 15% (2040), and 20% to 26% (2080) without CO 2 effect. However, earlier planting combined with CO 2 elevation is projected to increase yields by 16% for the 2020 scenario. 191Yields of irrigated potatoes are projected to decline 9%, 15%, and 22% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but these losses are significantly smaller (2 to 3%) with CO 2 elevation. Varieties with a longer duration of green leaf area, combined with elevated CO 2 , could potentially result in yield gains of 15%. However, reductions of tuber quality are a concern under warmer conditions. Apple yields are projected to decline 1%, 3%, and 4% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but with projected yields increasing 6% (2020), 9% (2040), and...

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Section: Insectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

et al. 2010

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“…While providing essential information on adult population peaks for insecticide spray timing or pre1ictive phenological models (Reidl et al 1976, Welch et al 1978, its usefulness for estimating population density has been limited by a number of factors. One is the lack of knowledge of the drawing range of such traps, without which even rudimentary absolute density estimates cannot be made.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Initiation and Termination of Oriental Fruit Moth Male Response to Pheromone Concentrations in the Field

Baker¹,

Roelofs²

1981

Environmental Entomology

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Environ. Entomol. 10: 211-218 (1981) The distance from the pheromone source at which Grapholitha molesta (Busck) males initiated walking, upwind flight, or wing fanning while walking varied directly with the pheromone emission rate. Roughly a IO-fold increase in emission rate resulted in a ca. 2-fold increase in mean maximum distance for initiation of these behaviors. Also, an apparent upper concentration threshold in males caused upwind flight to be terminated at increasing distances from the source with increasing emission rates. Thus, upper and lower thresholds apparently determine the boundaries of the "active distance" for upwind flight. There was much daily variation in mean maximum active distance, possibly due to temperature effects upon male threshold. The active distance estimates were used to design an optimal monitoring trap deployment strategy to minimize attraction of males from areas surrounding orchards. Using Bossert and Wilson's equation for active space, the average lower (initiation) threshold for upwind flight was 7.2 x 10-17 g/cm 3 and the upper (termination) threshold was 2. I x 10-13 g/cm 3 . Their model should be altered so that active space is defined as the space where pheromone concentration is within both lower and upper thresholds for a particular behavior.

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“…The bimodality of codling moth flights recorded at unsprayed sites in this study, may be because of a failure of pheromone traps to reflect true flight patterns, as shown by Riedl et al (1976) for codling moth and by Croft et al (1986) for Argyrotaenia citrana; namely, that female moths may compete with traps to produce a lag phase in recorded flight which does not reflect any similar pattern for other processes, i.e., oviposition.…”

Section: Developmental Datamentioning

confidence: 68%

An evaluation of a phenological model (PETE) to assist insect pest control in apple orchards in Canterbury, New Zealand

Tomkins

Penman

Chapman

et al. 1987

New Zealand Journal of Experimental Agriculture

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An evaluation was conducted of a model (PETE) for predicting the phenology of codling moth (Cydia pomonel/a L.) and the lightbrown apple moth (Epiphyas postvittana (Walker)) in apple orchards in Canterbury, New Zealand. Validation data consisted of adult flights recorded with pheromone traps for codling moth, and bait trap catches and the occurrence of eggs and larvae recorded by destructive sampling of apple tree clusters for lightbrown apple moth. Key events in the life history of both pests occurred over extended periods because of mild winters affecting diapause termination for codling moth and the complete absence of diapause by the lightbrown apple moth. The model was able to reflect observed pest phenology but some problems were encountered and these are discussed.

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Forecasting Codling Moth Phenology Based on Pheromone Trap Catches and Physiological-Time Models

Cited by 132 publications

References 14 publications

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

Initiation and Termination of Oriental Fruit Moth Male Response to Pheromone Concentrations in the Field

An evaluation of a phenological model (PETE) to assist insect pest control in apple orchards in Canterbury, New Zealand

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