Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes

Owsiak, Andrew P.

doi:10.1177/0738894214545034

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…developed examining the effect of actions such as peacekeeping and mediation on the termination of civil wars and the duration of peace following ceasefires. 1 While some studies have considered how third-party conflict management efforts are interdependent (Melin 2015;Diehl and Regan 2015;Wall and Druckman 2003;Owsiak 2015;Walter 2002), most research considers the impacts of mediation and peacekeeping separately.…”

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confidence: 99%

Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War

Beardsley

Cunningham

White

2018

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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One of the proposed benefits of third-party involvement that has been offered to justify its use is that it helps reduce the severity of conflict. Existing work finding that peacekeeping operations reduce battle-related fatalities considers peacekeeping in isolation from other forms of third-party diplomatic involvement, such as mediation. We argue that mediation has its own effect on patterns of violence. Moreover, we argue that peacekeeping and mediation can have an interactive effect, in which each enhance the violence-reducing potential of the other. Using monthly data on battle-related deaths in African intrastate conflicts, we find that mediation is associated with reduced bloodshed. We also find, consistent with existing work, that a greater number of peacekeepers leads to a reduction in violence. In addition, we find that mediation and peacekeeping efforts reinforce one another, although each type of involvement is able to reduce battlefield fatalities independently.

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confidence: 99%

Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War

Beardsley

Cunningham

White

2018

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…16. This approach aligns with Owsiak (2014Owsiak ( , 2015, who argues that a prior conflict management approach is the most likely to shape subsequent efforts. 17.…”

Section: Supplemental Materialsmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…A growing body of literature focuses on what Owsiak (2014Owsiak ( , 2015 terms conflict management trajectories, i.e. the sequencing of third-party interventions.…”

Section: Escalation Across Un Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 Accordingly, we explore the conditions shaping the UN’s choice between political and peacekeeping missions. Scholars increasingly examine possible interdependencies between different conflict-management tools (Diehl and Regan, 2015; Melin, 2015; Owsiak, 2014, 2015; Owsiak et al, 2021) as well as their complementarities (Beardsley et al, 2019; Clayton and Dorussen, 2021; DeRouen and Chowdhury, 2018; Greig and Diehl, 2005; Kathman and Benson, 2019). Thus, our work also adds to the empirical assessments of the interdependencies across UN peacemaking tools.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 5. To the best of our knowledge, Heldt (2013) is the only other study to explicitly consider the sequencing of UN peacemaking efforts. Owsiak (2014, 2015) and Melin (2015) examine the sequencing of various conflict management tools in interstate conflicts. …”

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confidence: 99%

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Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peacekeeping operations

Dorussen

Böhmelt

Clayton

2021

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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The UN has developed a diverse range of peacemaking tools, including different forms of political initiatives (diplomatic, technocratic, and political-development missions) and peacekeeping operations. Yet we know surprisingly little about when and why we observe the onset of different types of UN missions. Examining an “escalatory trajectory,” we analyze the United Nations Peace Initiatives data, a new dataset providing information on all different types of UN engagements. Our main contributions are that we provide insights into how the different types of missions relate to one another and conceptual clarity about what the different types of missions are.

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Arms Racing, Military Build-Ups and Dispute Intensity: Evidence from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry, 1985-2020

Choulis

Mehrl

Ifantis

2021

Defence and Peace Economics

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Arms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute.

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Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes

Cited by 9 publications

References 55 publications

Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War

Mediation, Peacekeeping, and the Severity of Civil War

Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peacekeeping operations

Arms Racing, Military Build-Ups and Dispute Intensity: Evidence from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry, 1985-2020

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