Forecasting of Area and Production of Cotton in India: An Application of ARIMA Model

Wali, V. B.

doi:10.18782/2320-7051.5409

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The highest accuracy of forecasts was obtained for the month of January 2022 with an accuracy rate of 99.87 per cent. Wali et al (2017) [7] and Jalikatti and Patil (2015) [6] were also observed same kind of observation in their study.…”

Section: Forecast Of Pearl Millet Pricessupporting

confidence: 79%

A study on price forecasts of pearl millet in major markets of Karnataka

Kumar,

Sonnad,

Yeledhalli

et al. 2024

Int. J. Stat. Appl. Math.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Millets are group of small-grained cereal food crops that are highly nutritious and are grown under marginal/low fertile soils with very low inputs such as fertilizers and plant protection chemicals. These crops largely contribute to food and nutritional security of the country. Karnataka state is well known for cultivating minor millets in India, with Pearl Millet, Pearl millet, Foxtail Millet, Little Millet and others, serving as staple meal in the major portion of the state. Forecasting of prices for pearl millet in its major markets is an important aspect in order to facilitate the farmers for their cropping plan. Current study is conducted in Raichur and Koppal districts for which was selected based on the highest arrivals in the selected markets. The time series data on monthly model price of pearl millet and bajra required for the study were collected from the respective APMC office records from 2011-12 to 2021-2022. A mixed Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model developed by Box and Jenkins (1976) was employed to forecast the prices of pearl millet in selected markets. Which involved selection of appropriate model, estimation of parameters, diagnostic checking and finally forecasting the prices.

show abstract

Section: Forecast Of Pearl Millet Pricessupporting

confidence: 79%

A study on price forecasts of pearl millet in major markets of Karnataka

Kumar,

Sonnad,

Yeledhalli

et al. 2024

Int. J. Stat. Appl. Math.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With the ARIMA model, forecasts are made for many agricultural production activities. Although it is seen that some studies have been carried out on cotton production, production area, yield, prices, and trade around the World (Debnath et al, 2013;Ozer & Ilkdogan, 2013;Borkar & Tayade, 2016;Darekar & Reddy, 2017;Ghosh, 2017;Umar et al, 2017;Wali et al, 2017;Kusuma et al, 2018;Basaran Caner & Engindeniz, 2020;Mayuri Barai et al, 2020;Elsamie et al, 2021;Mohanapriya & Ganapat, 2021;Rayasingh & Debasis Raut, 2021), no literature has been found on cotton production and trade estimation of Azerbaijan. There are studies in which only some non-agricultural estimations are made (Sivri, 2016;Ahmadova, 2020;Mammadov, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cotton production forecasts of Azerbaijan in the 2023-2027 periods

Uzundumlu

ZEYNALOVA

Engindeniz

2023

Ege Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the production area and amount for the years 2023-2027, taking into account the 1992-2022 cotton production area and production data of Azerbaijan, one of the countries that left the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1992. Material and methods: The data used in this study were obtained from FAOSTAT and the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The ARIMA method, which is one of the most commonly used methods for univariate time-series estimation, was used in this study. Results: It was estimated that the production area will decrease continuously in 2023-2027, the average production area and production will be 91,942 ha and 324,156 tons, respectively, and the yield will be 3,549 kg/ha in these five years. Conclusion: These results indicated that although the increase in productivity in Azerbaijan provides a significant increase in production, the production area should also be increased to become one of the leading countries in the world market. For this, government support needs to be increased.

show abstract