Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter

Benito, Blas M.; Lorite, Juan; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón; Gómez‐Aparicio, Lorena; Peñas, Julio

doi:10.1111/ddi.12148

Cited by 20 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…With the advance of climate change, plants will be exposed to more extreme abiotic stresses (Fitzpatrick et al 2008 ; Lindner et al 2010 ; Benito et al 2014 ). Increased abiotic stress will likely affect the geographic ranges of plants, and could increase the impact on AM fungi due to their reduced ability to migrate in response to a changing environment (Fitter et al 2000 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stressed out symbiotes: hypotheses for the influence of abiotic stress on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

2016

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Abiotic stress is a widespread threat to both plant and soil communities. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi can alleviate effects of abiotic stress by improving host plant stress tolerance, but the direct effects of abiotic stress on AM fungi are less well understood. We propose two hypotheses predicting how AM fungi will respond to abiotic stress. The stress exclusion hypothesis predicts that AM fungal abundance and diversity will decrease with persistent abiotic stress. The mycorrhizal stress adaptation hypothesis predicts that AM fungi will evolve in response to abiotic stress to maintain their fitness. We conclude that abiotic stress can have effects on AM fungi independent of the effects on the host plant. AM fungal communities will change in composition in response to abiotic stress, which may mean the loss of important individual species. This could alter feedbacks to the plant community and beyond. AM fungi will adapt to abiotic stress independent of their host plant. The adaptation of AM fungi to abiotic stress should allow the maintenance of the plant-AM fungal mutualism in the face of changing climates.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00442-016-3673-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stressed out symbiotes: hypotheses for the influence of abiotic stress on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

2016

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“…When applied to distribution data, they can predict distributions across geographic landscapes by multiple responses, improve image analysis or remote-sensing in order to lead the search for poorly known species [65][66][67][68], thus providing perceptions into the species' habitat, range and abundance [69][70][71][72][73]. Furthermore, several authors like Elith and Leathwick [74], Benito et al [75], Fois et al [76], and De Luis et al [77,78] used SDMs based on the extant localities, as well as the respective current and future climate scenarios to predict the possible variation in the environmental niche of certain plant species, inferring ecological and evolutionary insights.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Mendoza-Fernández

Martínez-Hernández

Salmerón-Sánchez

et al. 2020

Land

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Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea is a shrub belonging to the Celastraceae family, whose only European populations are distributed discontinuously along the south-eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, forming plant communities with great ecological value, unique in Europe. As it is an endangered species that makes up plant communities with great palaeoecological significance, the development of species distribution models is of major interest under different climatic scenarios, past, present and future, based on the fact that the climate could play a relevant role in the distribution of this species, as well as in the conformation of the communities in which it is integrated. Palaeoecological models were generated for the Maximum Interglacial, Last Maximum Glacial and Middle Holocene periods. The results obtained showed that the widest distribution of this species, and the maximum suitability of its habitat, occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum, when the temperatures of the peninsular southeast were not as contrasting as those of the rest of the European continent and were favored by higher rainfall. Under these conditions, large territories could act as shelters during the glacial period, a hypothesis reflected in the model’s results for this period, which exhibit a further expansion of M. europaea’s ecological niche. The future projection of models in around 2070, for four Representative Concentration Pathways according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showed that the most favorable areas for this species would be Campo de Dalías (southern portion of Almería province) as it presents the bioclimatic characteristics of greater adjustment to M. europaea’s ecological niche model. Currently, some of the largest specimens of the species survive in the agricultural landscapes in the southern Spain. These areas are almost totally destroyed and heavily altered by intensive agriculture greenhouses, also causing a severe fragmentation of the habitat, which implies a prospective extinction scenario in the near future.

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“…Most hybrid approaches pair SDMs with mechanistic models to overcome the limitations of correlative SDMs (Dormann et al, ; Singer et al, ). For example, Benito, Lorite, Pérez‐Pérez, Gómez‐Aparicio, & Peñas () combined the results of species distribution models for 176 plant species in the southern Iberian Peninsula with dispersal kernel analysis to forecast the range declines of these species by 2100. Furthermore, Naujokaitis‐Lewis et al () paired species distribution and meta‐population models, including environmental conditions and population processes, to measure possible range shifts of the hooded warbler in an area encompassing the eastern USA and southern Ontario, Canada in 2080, based on ranges defined for the years 1985–2005.…”

Section: Methods and Metrics For Measuring Changes In Species Ranges mentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity and suitability of existing methods and metrics for quantifying species range shifts

Yalcin

Leroux

2017

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim: The quantification of species range shifts is critical for developing effective plans to conserve biodiversity. There are numerous methods and metrics for quantifying species range shifts, but we currently lack a comprehensive review of existing approaches used in species range shift studies. Location: Global.Time period: 2013 -2014.Major taxa studied: All taxa. Methods:We conducted a quantitative literature review to first identify the methods currently used for defining a species' range over a particular time and then to identify metrics used for measuring changes in species ranges over time. We provide a roadmap for the selection of methods and metrics for measuring species ranges and species range shifts by discussing opportunities, assumptions and constraints of the different approaches.Results: Our literature review revealed six main methods for defining species ranges: observational studies, grid-based mapping, convex hull, kriging, species distribution modelling and hybrid methods. These methods are used with three main metric classes to measure species range shifts: changes in range limit, size and the probability of species occurrences or suitability. Most methods for defining species ranges and subsequent range shifts can be applied to different spatial extents and resolutions and taxa. However, only species distribution models (SDMs) and hybrid methods allow for the exploration of the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables, and only these methods can be used for forecasting species ranges into future environments.Likewise, the inclusion of ecological processes in range shift calculations requires researchers to use hybrid methods or mechanistic models.Main conclusions: Our review revealed a high diversity of methods and metrics used to quantify species range shifts. As these methods and metrics underlie many of the conservation strategies proposed for climate change mitigation (e.g., protection of refugia), we urge the conservation community to evaluate underlying approaches for defining species ranges and measuring species range shifts with an equal level of scrutiny as the conservation strategies that these methods and metrics enable. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, global change, grid-based map, hybrid method, mechanistic model, meta-population model, range contraction, range expansion, SDM, species distribution Prentice, 2011). It is therefore surprising that we lack a comprehensive review of the most common methods and metrics used to define species ranges and species range shifts.Studies of ranges shifts necessarily begin by defining a species' range, followed by quantifying changes in this species' range over time. | METHODS A ND METRICS F OR ME A S U R I N G C H A N G E S I N S P E C I E S RAN GES OVE R TIME AN D S PACEThe use of time as a comparative parameter requires a reference measurement of a species' range to be defined for each period before calculating the range shift between multiple periods. We conducted a literature search to identify key...

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Forecasting plant range collapse in a mediterranean hotspot: when dispersal uncertainties matter

Cited by 20 publications

References 56 publications

Stressed out symbiotes: hypotheses for the influence of abiotic stress on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Stressed out symbiotes: hypotheses for the influence of abiotic stress on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

The Relict Ecosystem of Maytenus senegalensis subsp. europaea in an Agricultural Landscape: Past, Present and Future Scenarios

Diversity and suitability of existing methods and metrics for quantifying species range shifts

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